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Figure 6. Future field size distribution. It should reflect the size range from smallest detectable (‘geologic’) discovery up to the largest future discovery remaining to be found in the play. The threshold size is then used to estimate P(MEFS), the probability that any given discovery will exceed threshold (80% in this example). The size characteristics of just those fields exceeding the economic minimum (dashed yellow line) are used to calculate the economic volumes found, given success in the play.