--> New Ideas and Their Diffusion: A Model for Exploration and Production Companies in the 21st Century, by Arthur E. Berman, #70017 (2006).

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New Ideas and Their Diffusion: A Model for Exploration and Production Companies in the 21st Century*


Arthur E. Berman1


Search and Discovery Article #70017 (2006)

Posted August 19, 2006


*Oral presentation at AAPG Annual Convention, Houston, Texas, April 9-12, 2006


Click to view presentation in PDF format (1.4 mb).


1Sugar Land, TX ([email protected])



Most petroleum exploration and production (E&P) companies have embraced risk evaluation and portfolio management practices, but are not replacing reserves except by acquisitions and mergers. The chief tangible cause for failure to discover large, new reserves is that about 80% of the world is controlled by state oil companies and is, therefore, unavailable for competitive investment and drilling. It is reasonable, in other words, that if companies must continue to prospect in the same 20% of the world's basins that the size of new discoveries should decline as it has.  

There are, however, more fundamental and systemic reasons why petroleum E&P companies are in trouble. First, the Risk process discourages discovery of large reserves. The Risk evaluation model does not take diffusion theory into account adequately. By the time most companies decide to enter a new E&P play or trend, little opportunity remains and most remaining opportunity is in relatively small fields. Gulf of Mexico shelf and deepwater drilling and discovery patterns clearly show this.  

Petroleum companies reward their management largely without regard or accountability for reserve additions through exploration and production. Poor company performance has led to repeated technical staff reductions over the past 30 years, which, in turn, have discouraged young people from entering petroleum-related fields. The result is a depleted work force that has little replacement potential, but remains unappreciated and inadequately rewarded by their employers.  

At the same time, technical staffs have not adequately embraced inventive application of new technology and have, therefore, not developed new ideas for exploration and production. Seismic attribute analysis and deepwater facies models are believed by most to be the cutting edge of E&P but diffusion theory shows that, since everyone is using these approaches, they will yield limited future opportunities.


Selected Figures 

How we got into trouble: Misunderstanding world demand.

How we got into trouble: Mistaking refining capacity for oversupply of oil.

How we got into trouble: Oil companies not finding big reserves (and thinking that we could manage our way out using a risk analysis process).

How we got into trouble: How well are state oil companies doing?