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The Erosion of Knowledge and the Roles of Professional Societies:

Is there a Responsibility Implied?

Or...Larson’s Look at the Future of Finding Oil and Gas)*

By

J. B. (Jack) Thomas1

 

Search and Discovery Article #70011 (2004)

 

*Adapted from oral presentation to Tulsa Geological Society, September 7, 2004. 

1AAPG Geoscience Director, Tulsa, OK ([email protected])  

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uIndustry prediction

uLoss of corporate memory

uInformation

  uProfessional society node

  uKnowledge & societies

  uKnowledge in 21st century

  uSuccessful professional

  uPublications

uKnowledge: the legacy

  uAAPG/Datapages

  uBalancing demand & supply

  uApplications

uLearn from the past

Industry Prediction* of Workforce in 1996-- was it Correct? 

·        1996 estimate of 400,000 geologists, engineers, and geophysicists in energy

·        2000 forecast ~ 100,000 projected

·        2002 extrapolated < 80,000

·        2004 extrapolated < 50,000

 

If Workforce is growing in 2004 and beyond…where and how?

       * A.Anderson Consulting report, 1998, estimates excludes data from China.

 

Loss of Corporate Memory

 

University Enrollment

Lower enrollment in petroleum

Interdisciplinary requirements

    Increased strain on industry workforce (Figure 1)

 

Figure 1. Special Agent Gumby falls into the frustrated hands of the enemy.

 

 

 

 

Last 20 Years

Smaller Staffs

Mergers

Younger Staffs

Where do the mentors go (Figure 2)?

 

Figure 2. “Now, Larry, don’t think of this as a forced retirement ... it’s more like we’re just putting you out to pasture.”

 

 

To fight this, companies:

Provide technology.

Use vendor specialists.

Interdisciplinary teams.

But it cannot come to this (Figure 3)!

 

Figure 3. “What are we working on? I’m from Breakthrough Temporaries.”

 

 

 

Information You Can Use = Knowledge 

We need information access from:

Print publications

Digital publications

Online databases

People who “have done it”…the Mentors

 

Where to learn about these sources?

“Surf the Net”

Academia

Professional Societies

 

The Professional Society “Node” 

Need to know how people learn: graphic, audio, tactile.

Emphasize understanding “basics” and “case studies.”

Be a partner in digital archiving.

Show successful “Shortcuts.”

Mentor and train.

 

What About Knowledge and Professional Societies? 

The only difference between a library and dead storage is an index- Put it to use!

Develop relevant publications.

Show people how to do it--Professional Development.

Help them experience the “hunt.”

Celebrate and learn from the past.

 

What About Knowledge in the 21st Century (Figure 4)?

 

Figure 4. Institute for Advanced Hindsight: Research into what should have been.

 

 

 

It is not efficient for every company to create its own library.

Societies (as publishers) have a responsibility to foster this activity

Societies can lead in professional development

 

The Successful Technical Professional… 

Needs:

Rapid access to data

Ready-to-use formats

Interdisciplinary training

The challenge to think differently (Figure 5)

 

Figure 5. “Never, ever, think outside the box.” (From The New Yorker, November 30, 1998.)

 

 

 

 

     Needs to know: 

Source of the data

Quality of the data

Technical information

      Projection stats, etc.

Presented as quickly as possible

Documentation on how well the data were utilized

Where to go?

 

Society Publications are Essential! 

TGS has created Regional Guidebooks, Field Trips, Short Courses, a Digest of Important Papers

AAPG provides more than 100 different products on technical and business aspects of E&P

SEPM- petrology and paleo that documents key concepts.

SEG- important geophysical theory and application publications (digital and print)

SPE- important knowledge on petroleum engineering, drilling topics

SPWLA- critical understanding on formation evaluation topics

 

Knowledge: the Legacy of Societies

 When a society goes out of existence…

What happens to the knowledge?

What happens to the mentors?

Will the “wheel be re-discovered”?

Requirement of future generations…

Tap the knowledge by reading.

Listen to the oral histories.

Generate new ideas based on past experiences (LEARN!).

 

AAPG/Datapages Example 

Collections Preservation

AAPG Bulletin

AAPG Special Publications

Journal of Sedimentary Research (SEPM)

Journal of Petroleum Geology (Scientific Press)

Gulf Coast Transactions (GCAGS)

Canadian (CSPG) Bulletin

Canadian (CSPG) Special Publications

New Orleans Geological Society

Lafayette Geological Society

Oklahoma City Geological Society

In process

Tulsa Geological Society

Ft. Worth Geol. Society

Kansas Geological Society

Wyoming Geological Association

others

 

Societies can help Balance these Demand and Supply Barriers 

Geophysics- 3D, 4D

Drilling- deeper, smarter

Gas utilization- GTL, Pipelines

Re-supply of offshore operations

Environmental Remediation

Trained work force

 

Society Knowledge Applications Here! 

Deep Shelf, Gulf of Mexico

< 500 wells TD below 18,000’

North America, Onshore, Offshore

Gas; basin centered, CBM, low BTU

Revitalizing Mature Properties

UK Continental Shelf

Satellite fields tied to infrastructure

3D-defined prospects further from land

Russia, China, West Africa, Middle East

 

Learn from the Past 

Don’t plug the dike with a straw.

Think about the aerodynamics of your kite (Figure 6)!

 

Figure 6. “Okay, Bob! Go! Go!”

 

 

 

Train, Mentor, Publish…It is Our True Responsibility.

 

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