We rely on hydrocarbons today, and “alternative sources” provide for only a small part of our needs. Will our pattern of energy use change? Economics and technology will determine the future.

Figure 3. Categories of energy use and energy sources, showing that fossil fuels provide of 85% of U.S. energy.

The New Energy Economy

Historically, the sequence of the dominant source of energy (Figure 4) has been / is:

• Wood (1800s)

• Coal

• Oil

• Natural Gas

• Hydrogen (envisioned)

The emerging “hydrogen economy” is better characterized as a “fuel cell economy” that will run on natural gas--i.e., a “natural gas economy.”

The different dominant sources represent changes in carbon content, with high carbon content in wood and coal, medium in oil, low in natural gas, to zero in hydrogen.

The changes in dominant source are represented by corresponding progressive increases in:

• Cleanliness

• Energy intensity

• Technological sophistication

Figure 4. Changes in dominant energy sources, with hydrogen as the envisioned source for the new energy economy.

Energy Sources through Time (Figure 5)

Figure 5. Percentages of total energy market, according to source, 1850 to 1990 and projected to 2050. Source--Marchetti and Nakicenovic, 1994.

Alternative Energy Sources

Wind Energy (Figure 6)

• The most frequently mentioned renewable source of energy is wind power.

• The critical problem with wind power is the overwhelming dependence on geography.

Figure 6. Map of average wind power in the United States, showing moderate to excellent potential in the Plains States primarily.

Solar Energy (Figure 7)

• Again, the critical problem with solar energy is the overwhelming dependence on geography.

• Two types of solar energy have been envisioned: direct thermal uses for homes / office buildings and power generation. The first is obvious; the second is far more complex and challenging.

• Solar energy represents a highly diffuse form of energy.

Figure 7. Average daily solar radiation in the United States, with best potential as an energy source in the west, exclusive of the northern tier of states.

Geothermal Energy (Figures 8, 9, 10, and 11)

Figure 8. Schematic section of a geothermal reservoir, with rainwater from the mountains moving downward in the subsurface along faults to a zone of hot rock, where the water is heated and then migrates upward across strata.

Figure 9. Schematic diagram of basic well array in production of geothermal energy, in which water is injected into zone of hot rock to be later extracted from a production well.

Figure 10. U.S. Geothermal Potential (power plants, direct use, and heat pumps).

Figure 11. Growth in U.S. geothermal power, showing substantial growth until about 1990, after which growth has been slight. Production is now about 3,000 MWe/year.

Biomass to Bioenergy (Figure 12)

Figure 12. Diagram of biomass to bioenergy, showing a range of source materials for biofuels and energy services.

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Other Energy Sources

China’s Magnetic-Levitation Train (Figure 13)

Figure 13. The magnetically levitated (no friction) trains have an advantage over conventional and high-speed trains by eliminating the wheel/rail friction to obtain higher speeds and by lowering maintenance costs. The basic idea of a MAGLEV train is to levitate it with magnetic fields so there is no physical contact between the train and the rails (guideways).

Nuclear Energy (Figures 14 and 15)

Figure 14. Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, operated by Pacific Gas & Electric Company, has 2 units on 750 acres in San Luis Obispo County, California. Construction of the units may have been the longest in U.S. history, at 15 and 16 years, due to regulatory concern for its ability to withstand seismic activity. Operation began in 1984. The combined capacity of the two units is 2,160 net MWe. Cooling water for the units is obtained from the Pacific Ocean.

Figure 15. South Texas Nuclear Power Plant, located 90 miles southwest of Houston in Matagorda County, with two units, has a capacity of 2,500 megawatts, which is sufficient energy to supply more than a million residences. It is jointly owned by the municipal utilities of San Antonio and Austin and two generating companies.

Coal

Coal is America’s most abundant energy source (Figures 16 and 17).

Figure 16. Peabody’s 75 Million Ton Per-Year North Antelope Rochelle Mine, which began operation in 1983, is America’s largest coal mine. It is located in southeast Campbell County, Wyoming, in the Powder River Basin. The coal is sub-bituminous, with 8,800 BTU/lb. Sulfur is 0.23%; moisture is 28%, and ash is 4.6%. The seam is 65 feet thick, and recoverable reserves are estimated to be 1,375 million tons.

Figure 17. U.S. fuel resources and electricity fuel sources. Coal and gas represent 95% of U.S. fuel resources and 68% of electricity fuel sources.

Hydrogen / Fuel Cell (Figures 18 and 19)

Hydrogen is everywhere. But it has to be extracted from fossil fuels (Natural Gas) or water.

“Making hydrogen with fossil fuels and nuclear power is like making a nicotine patch that’s carcinogenic”--Dan Becker Sierra Club

• In short, you need Energy to get Energy.

Figure 18. Coleman Powermate “Air Gen.” One way to insure against power outages is with the use of a backup power system. Portable generators range from 1,500 to 12,000 watts.

Figure 19. HydroGen3, demonstrating GM’s fuel cell technology. GM's HydroGen3 is a fuel-cell vehicle that uses liquid hydrogen; it has run on public roads in Japan. Its range is some 170 miles, and top speed is 100 mph.

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Is the World Running out of Oil and Gas?

From “known sources” alone, the world, with about 5,800 BBE estimated ultimate recovery (Figure 20), may have 8 to 9 decades of oil and gas available. There are reasons to suggest that this time frame is too conservative.

Figure 20. World’s ultimate recovery of oil and natural gas (1997) (Billions of Barrels or equivalent). For oil, 3,300 BB; for gas, 2,490BBE. Source--Schollnberger, 1998.

Does the world have enough resources?

Each day the world consumes:

•78 million barrels of oil

•275 bcf of gas (47 million barrels oil equivalent)

At current consumption levels, from Proved Reserves and Field Growth alone, oil supply can last for 53 years •and gas supply for 60 years. If half of the “undiscovered resources” are eventually converted to “proven reserves,” oil can last for 71 years and gas for 92 years.

Potential in “Unconventional” Resources

Although “Heavy Oil” and “Tar Sands” have been included in “Resources” in the past, new technology and current economics are moving large volumes to “Reserves.” In 2002, Oil and Gas Journal added 175 billion barrels to Canadian reserves from Athabasca sands (Figure 21). Canada now has more reserves than Iraq.

•The Orinoco heavy sands in Venezuela may also have as much oil as the Canadian sands.

Figure 21. Suncor Energy Inc. operation in Athabasca sands. Suncor plans to produce 215,000 barrels per day in 2003 from the company's oil sands operation.

Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Supply, and Consumption (Figures 22, 23, and 24)

Figure 22. Natural gas proved reserves. At the end of 2000, natural gas proved reserves were estimated to be 5,304 trillion cubic feet. The six countries with more reserves than the United States (with 167 TCF) are Russia (1,700 TCF), Iran (812 TCF), Qatar (394 TCF), Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2001.

Figure 23. Plot of U.S. and Canada gas supply, 1990 to 2010, without any drilling or development. Under those circumstances, U.S. gas supply would decrease sharply in this decade.

Figure 24. Various forecasts of U.S. natural gas consumption. For 2010, the range is from about 28 TCF to 40 TCF. Source – Professor Michael Economides.

The Age of Energy Gases

• Natural gas will rise toward global predominance of the energy markets.

• It will provide a natural transition to the hydrogen economy.

• Hydrogen-based economy will provide for environmentally sustainable economic growth.

Accelerating US Decline Rates (Figure 25)

Figure 25. U.S. natural gas production history, showing a 27% decline rate in 2002. Source--EOG Resources, Inc.

Unconventional Gas Classification

• Tight Gas Sands

• Coalbed Methane

• Devonian Shale

• Natural Gas Hydrates

The first three are produced today. Natural gas hydrates, with perhaps the largest volume in place, form a considerable future challenge.

Gas Hydrates (Figures 26 and 27)

Gas hydrate resource may extend the supply for a very long time.

•World’s resource of gas hydrates may be as much as 700,000 trillion cubic feet. Production technology does not yet exist, but there is no reason to believe that it would not be there in 25 to 30 years. But it is never too early to plan for transition……

Figure 26. Resources of mineral energy, showing that only a modest percentage of the potential of natural gas hydrate represents almost 75% of the total resources.