The Impact of Multi-Basin Resource Assessment and Petroleum Systems Modeling for a Country-Wide Yet-to-Find (YTF) Portfolio

Abstract

A country-wide resource assessment is critical to determine how much hydrocarbon (HC) is yet-to-be-found (YTF) in specific basins and assessment units (AU). This, when addressing Asian basins, where demand for HC is big and where a formal industry-recognized workflow for resource assessment may not have been done, is critical to have. Based on that, the strategy for a country’s petroleum-based energy plans, both near-/long-term may be best formulated. This includes clarity for informed decision-making for new/incoming and private/public entities in the realm of HC exploration in a country. Basins need to be rigorously studied using industry best-practices, with apt introduction of new-technologies, to address infill technical elements fit-for the local context with a tailor-made standardization meant for the basins at hand. This typically includes 1) a complete review of all G&G data, reports/ analogues, 2) assembling a static exploration data-model supported by QC, 3) 3D-petroleum systems modeling (PSM) to enable risking of the PS elements, 4) chance of success (COS) in the Assessment Units, and 5) probabilistic YTF resource estimates to deliver a national database with risking/ranking. As a case-study, apt for Myanmar and other SE Asian nations, information from a recent national assessment project will be presented. The Government of India’s Directorate General of Hydrocarbon (DGH) assigned a project to ONGC, to assess the Yet-to-Find (YTF) HC resources in all 26 basins. The work was undertaken by the Basin Group in 2015, in collaboration with Schlumberger, where > 50 G&G staff in 7 locations were assigned fulltime for > 2 years. Here > 180 plays/800 AUs were considered. The basins in a country, like here, are typically subdivided into 4 categories: being Proven/commercial, Identified/to be commercialized, Prospective/currently without commerciality and Potentially Prospective for future consideration. Basins covered numerous play-types and data availability ranged from 1000’s of wells in the producing basins to no subsurface data in some frontier areas. This posed a key challenge for the project and needed a standardization in the methodology to enable a fitting and objective assessment. Basin and PSM played a fundamental role and examples of its strategic importance include a) controlling the integration of all G&G data in static/dynamic geological models, b) screening with PS elemental criteria as an initial reality check, c) implementation of a standard risk-model based on the key PS elements as a bridge between “deterministic” and especially “probabilistic” modeling, and d) provision of a basin and play-scale framework for future exploration efforts, initiatives underpinned by near- and long-term strategies, using a true play-based approach to exploration. In the talk we present the methodologies, pitfalls and generic results related to any Resource Assessment/PSM effort (no confidential info will be used). It offers a unique opportunity to learn from our experience of implementing a rigorous standardization approach to support improved national resource assessment and development strategies.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90336 ©2018 AAPG Asia Pacific Region, The 4th AAPG/EAGE/MGS Myanmar Oil and Gas Conference, Myanmar: A Global Oil and Gas Hotspot: Unleashing the Petroleum Systems Potential, Yangon, Myanmar, November 13-15, 2018