Eastern Section Meeting

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Estimating Global Warming Mitigation from Carbon Dioxide Sequestration


Using the EPA's Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC), we calculate the amount of mitigated warming under various carbon dioxide sequestration scenarios. We find that any unilateral effort, including 100% sequestration from all electrical generation, will have no detectable effect on the trajectory of planetary warming, as a result of dramatically increasing emissions from the maturing economies of China and India. We use the EPA's default assumptions when they employ MAGICC. We further examine whether these assumptions are realistic and find that, under the normative rules of science, they do not comport with the evolution of climate change since the mid-20th century. We are forced to conclude that, from a climatic point of view, sequestration of carbon dioxide from electrical generation yields little, if any, detectable mitigation of warming under any realistic scenario for global economic development.