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Price Projection Model for New Explorations and the Lost Control of Majors

Al-Farisi, Omar *2; Belhaj, Hadi 1; Fahmy, Fadi 1; Syed, Fahad 1; Fan, Kai 1; Al-Attar, Ahmed 1; Al-Hashmi, Ehtisham 1; Memon, Sikandar 1; Al-Hosany, Mohamed 1; Hussain, Tasweer 1; Obasi, Daniel 1
(1) ADMA-OPCO, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (2) Petroleum Engineering, Petroleum Institute, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Oil price prediction is one of the vital processes in every oil producing and operating company for current running projects and future new explorations, the whole different segments of industries and commodities would be also interested in knowing the future of oil prices, and we shall not ignore the interest that each country by itself shows to know the effect of future prices on their development plans. The oil price today is somehow far away from the control of any of the world powers, not under the control of the major consumers like the United States, Europe, Japan, Russia & China, nor the Super Majors like BP, Total, Exxon, Shell and Chevron, and not even OPEC majors like Saudi, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and UAE for several reasons. The Consumers are not any more controlling the tap of oil as it was before the 1960's. While the Super majors are not any more having the major reserves as it was before the 1970's, while for OPEC the Excess Capacity of oil production that they have during 1970's, 80's, and 90's has diminished with maturing fields and failing to find new reserves. Therefore, the oil price control become mainly in the hand of supply and demand trends, hence the ability to capture the supply and demand trend model and anticipate the future of them, the oil price shall be known with reasonable confidence. Therefore, several attempts have been conducted throughout the years to estimate the oil prices as early as 1960's. In this paper, a new oil price projection modeling is built and called POMVSD (Price of Oil Modeling with Variables of Supply and Demand). A model reflects the new economic changes happening worldwide. The details of this model will be described in this paper in addition to a review and analysis of historical and modern literature that support this new model structure.


AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90141©2012, GEO-2012, 10th Middle East Geosciences Conference and Exhibition, 4-7 March 2012, Manama, Bahrain