--> Economics of Staged Exploration and Exploitation: From Application to a Deepwater Concession, Stabell, Charles; Hole, Per Audun, #90100 (2009)

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Economics of Staged Exploration and Exploitation: From Application to a Deepwater Concession

Stabell, Charles1
 Hole, Per Audun1

1GeoKnowledge, Oslo, Norway.

This paper presents an analytical framework for stochastic assessment of economic value of a concession with mainly postulated opportunities. The framework models staged exploration and exploitation decisions where the decisions are based on the results of earlier choices and expectations concerning remaining opportunities. The analytics honor both sub-surface risk dependencies and surface shared facilities and fiscals. Dry hole tolerance is captured by assumptions concerning both commitment wells and when to drop the concession. In order to handle a realistic setting, the framework considers both stand-alone development and incremental tie-backs (cluster developments). A key element of the approach is to organize opportunities in a series of meta-prospects. The paper presents an application to a deepwater concession.

AAPG Search and Discover Article #90100©2009 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition 15-18 November 2009, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil