Wygrala, Bjorn¹, Armin Kauerauf¹, Robert Tscherny¹, Thomas Hantschel¹, Peter Eisenach² 
(1) IES GmbH, 52428 Juelich, Germany 
(2) Wintershall-AG, Kassel, Germany

ABSTRACT: Decision Support Systems in Petroleum Exploration - Assessing Geologic Risks

Decision Support Systems (DSS) are interactive computer-based systems that help people use computer communications, data, knowledge and models to solve problems and make decisions. The systems manage complex problems with large numbers of variables and more or less structured interrelationships, and are routinely used to support decisions in areas such as logistics, financial and engineering analyses. They enable better decisions to be made more quickly and at a lower cost. 
In petroleum exploration, the geologic risk is always difficult to quantify due to the number of variables and uncertainties in the data. But recent technical developments enable these risks to be more accurately quantified and they form the core of a Petroleum Exploration DSS. The data is integrated in an Exploration Model, a 3D geologic model which contains the prospect or play and all of the related components of the geologic system which controls the petroleum risk. Processing is then performed by a 3D simulator which can accurately resolve all of the essential petroleum generation and migration processes. The final component is the full integration of risk analysis procedures, including Bayesian methods which enable prior geologic information to be taken into account. The improved geologic risk results can then be used in standard corporate risk assessment workflows. 
A recent application of the technology in an offshore basin in Brazil is used to illustrate the required data, the workflow and the results of a DSS which is specifically directed at supporting exploration decisions by integrating and processing regional-scale G&G data.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90026©2004 AAPG Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 18-21, 2004.