Torres-Verdin, Carlos¹, Maika Gambus-Ordaz¹ 
(1) The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX

ABSTRACT: A Field Study to Assess the Value of 3D Seismic Data in Reducing Uncertainty in the Forecast of Hydrocarbon Production

The objectives of this paper are to assess uncertainty in the construction of static hydrocarbon reservoir models, and to quantify whether a reduction of uncertainty in the forecast of hydrocarbon production is possible with the use of 3D seismic data. Work is focused to the analysis of data gathered in an active hydrocarbon field in the deep water Gulf of Mexico. The available measurements consist of 3D post-stack seismic data, well logs acquired along 8 deviated wells, seismic horizons, core samples, and time records of fluid production. Static reservoir models were constructed according to the following strategies: (a) conventional geostatistical simulation based on well logs and core data, and (b) joint stochastic inversion of well logs and 3D post-stack seismic data (post-stack geostatistical inversion). Multiple model realizations rendered by the two construction procedures were entered into a reservoir simulator to yield forecasts of reservoir production. The simulations were compared against existing time records of fluid production. An assessment was also carried out of the uncertainty and statistical bias of the predictions. The results of this study indicate that seismic data does reduce uncertainty in the prediction of hydrocarbon production. However, it is also found that the time record of fluid production can be substantially more sensitive to fluid and rock-fluid properties than to the spatial detail of the static model

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90026©2004 AAPG Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 18-21, 2004.