Fatoke, Oluwaseyi Adedamola1, Denis Chantreau1, Mona Kalu1,
Muyiwa Awojuyigbe1, Fred Osoro1
(1) Shell Nigeria, PortHarcourt, Nigeria
ABSTRACT: Geological Uncertainty Management in Integrated Reservoir Modeling Studies: Example from Onshore Niger Delta
The nature of the subsurface and limitation of subsurface data makes uncertainty
analysis and management an integral part of any integrated reservoir modeling study
workflow. Study deliverables-volumes, forecasts, optimal development plans, etc. are
intrinsically influenced by geological uncertainties and how such uncertainties are
handled is fundamental to any integrated work. Various methods are available for handling
these static uncertainties. These methods range from statistics to geostatistics, from
probabilistic to deterministic approach.
Scenario based approach is generally the recommended approach for handling static
uncertainties in reservoir study. In an unconstrained world numerical simulation of
identified scenarios is ideal. However, time and resources constraints are realities of
the E & P business.
In this paper we present a pragmatic scenario based uncertainty handling approach for
integrated reservoir modeling studies. The approach involves – integration and
analysis of all available subsurface data at study kick-off, identification, impact
assessment and ranking of all likely subsurface uncertainties and the development of a fit
for purpose, focused uncertainty management strategy for the uncertainties that has
significant impact. This method allows the team to decide early, on how best to handle the
uncertainties-sensitivities or full alternative scenario modeling. It also allows for
re-ranking of uncertainties as the study progresses.
The benefits of this approach are that it allows for better data integration, reduction in
integrated study time and provides a roadmap for achieving study deliverables without
jeopardising quality.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90026©2004 AAPG Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 18-21, 2004.