(1) CERA - Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Calgary, AB
ABSTRACT: Conventional, Unconventional, Offshore and Frontier Resources: Canada's Role in the North American Gas Marketplace
US gas demand is anticipated to increase to 30 Tcf per year by the end of the decade, and new sources must be brought on stream. Canada's natural gas endowment already makes it a major supply region for the US.
Gas from western Canada was expected to decline, but the region continues to increase its output with thousands of shallow gas wells drilled each year. Future growth will come from deeper parts of the region in front of the Eastern Slopes, along the Foothills, and in the southern NorthWest Territories. The ability to fully tap these resources is constrained by the existing rig fleet-less than 10 percent of rigs can drill below 12,500 feet.
Coalbed methane is the obvious extension of all the shallow drilling, given the nature of the rig fleet. The resource base is huge, and the technologies exist. Similarly, gas from tight sands, shales, and fractured reservoirs is not being exploited, despite skills developed in the 1970s and 1980s in the Elmworth Deep Basin play.
Two giant field areas-Scotian Shelf and Mackenzie Delta-Beaufort Sea-are now commercial or getting closer. Scotian Shelf development is underway, the only major constraint being sufficient pipeline take-away capacity to US northeast markets. The Mackenzie Delta resources are in direct competition with gas from Alaska's giant North Slope fields, but both will be needed to meet the expected demand.
Canada currently produces 17.69 Bcf per day, exporting over half-9.15 Bcf per day-to the US. Production is anticipated to increase to 27 Bcf per day by 2010, with exports exceeding 16 Bcf per day.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90906©2001 AAPG Annual Convention, Denver, Colorado