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ABSTRACT: "Back to the future" prediction of the future oil industry

Setiyawan, Bambang Hari, Syafar Syafri, and M. Gregory Smith , YPF Maxus Southeast Sumatra BV, Jakarta, Indonesia

To remain a successful and competitive company, that company has to have foresight and predict the future. This paper is intended to create discussion among players in the oil industry to imagine this industry in the future.

John Neisbitt's "Global Paradox" theory predicts a future united world economy. On the other hand, some large nations may break into small countries. For example, The Superpower USSR broke up in the 1990s and Indonesia now potentially faces a similar situation. East Timor is now independent from Indonesia and other parts of the country have similar demands. Who can guarantee that other nations such as China, India or Australia will not face the same problem?

If a significant number of large nation breakups occur, then the pattern of world oil industry might be totally changed. Currently, large corporations and their alliances dominate the global oil business. Will small companies gain ascendancy as the scale of operations decreases in maturing basins within smaller countries? In what direction will this industry move, upstream or downstream? How about the effect of the global macro economy to the fluctuation of oil prices? What will the effect be of oil substitution by gas, LNG, etceteras.

We have to think and answer many questions such as these in order to understand the future within the oil sector in the next century. Understanding the problem will help top management to prepare proper strategies and develop their human resources.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90913©2000 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Bali, Indonesia