David A. L. Jenkins1
(1) Chartwood Resources, Ltd, Surrey, United Kingdom
Abstract: Climate change-impacts and efforts
An awareness and understanding of the palaeoclimatological history of the planet allows a different construct for today's concerns about the impacts of future climatic changes.
In particular a better appreciation of the magnitude and rate of change during the past few hundred thousand years, demonstrates that the changes anticipated during the next few hundred, are well within the range experienced during the Pleistocene Era.
The planet is now in a period of gradual cooling from the time of the post glacial thermal optimum 6-9000 years ago. Temperatures are now on an irregular downward path, comparable to the Eemian interglacial, although at present we are experiencing a minor temperature increase, as a partial recovery from the 'Little Ice Age', which ended 150 years ago.
Climate will always change. The planet is extremely resilient. As the most intelligent species that has colonised the surface, humans clearly have ample capacity to adapt. However, our ability to do so will be limited by our political and behavioural patterns.
The well documented evidence from the climate changes in the northern hemisphere during the past 1000 years, indicates that changes in average global temperatures of 2C will have significant regional impacts on precipitation and vegetation patterns and lead to further changes in sea level. From the viewpoint of the demands of an increasing global population, these could managed given appropriate levels of investment. Warming is definitely easier to cope with than cooling. Stability is not an option.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90914©2000 AAPG Annual Convention, New Orleans, Louisiana