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Abstract: Risk Analysis in the Learning Organization

Peter D. Carragher

Systematic risk analysis requires that an organization records detailed predrill information about all prospects that are available to it. These records include those opportunities which the organization rejects. As prospects are drilled, and well information becomes available, the results are compared with the predrill prediction. Organizations need an environment where open and accurate post drill appraisal is part of the routine.

This paper discusses the next step in the process; taking the learnings from individual well results and leveraging those learnings throughout an organization. In the general case, the exploration organization is quite large and is located in different offices, often on different continents.

The first step is to use statistics to determine some points of focus. It is not possible to address every problem, and leverage across the organization requires solving some common problems. Analysis of the root causes of the problem has to be performed, and verified with at least some of the exploration teams. Finally, the message, or lesson learned has to be clearly communicated.

In our experience at Amoco, effective communication back to explorers requires three separate elements. These are: statistical data to establish the problem; clear summaries of the lessons learned; and effective visual examples of the point from real prospects. We will illustrate this process with some recent examples.

Finally, the true measure of a learning organization is a measurable increase in performance over time. Various measures, such as success rate calibration, resource prediction and value added will be illustrated.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90951©1996 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Caracas, Venezuela