Prospects for World Oil Supply

ESSER, ROBERT W., Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cambridge, MA

Surprises lie ahead for world oil supplies, which are expected to increase rapidly throughout the 1990s before leveling off by the end of the century. The extent of this increase could be the major surprise of the decade. Large increases in the capacity in Gulf countries accompanied by smaller increases in the non-Middle East OPEC countries will be augmented by a gradual increase in non-OPEC capacity into the late 1990s. By 2000, declining capacity in the latter two areas will offset continued capacity increases in the Gulf countries.

Overall capacity in the non-OPEC countries (excluding China, Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union) is expected to increase by 1.1 million BOPD from the low point in the early 1990s to a mid 1990s peak. The increase will be led by a large increase in capacity from the United Kingdom and smaller contributions from the non-Middle East OPEC countries and Mexico.

In the forecast, emphasis has been placed on a detailed evaluation of recent significant discoveries made in non-OPEC countries and non-Middle East OPEC countries since 1983, which, when taken together, are expected to add 8 million BOPD new capacity as soon as 1995. These discoveries have taken place in both existing and evolving exploration "hotspots" that are expected to received increasing industry emphasis in the 1990s.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91007© 1991 AAPG International Conference, London, England, September 29-October 2, 1991 (2009)