Worldwide Developments in Uranium

Earl E. Hoellen

World uranium production will continue to change in most major producing nations. Canadian production will increase and will be increasingly dominated by western producers as eastern Canadian high-cost production declines. Australian production will increase as major projects come into operation before 2000. U.S. production will stabilize through the end of the century. South African production will be dependent upon the worldwide support for economic sanctions. China's entry into the world market injects yet another variable into the already cloudy supply picture.

Many risks and uncertainties will face uranium producers through the 1980s. Recognizing that the uranium industry is not a fast-growing market, many existing and potential producers are seeking alternate investment courses, causing a restructuring of the world uranium production industry in ways not anticipated even a few years ago.

During the restructuring process, world uranium production will most likely continue to exceed uranium consumption, resulting in a further buildup of world uranium inventories. Inventory sales will continue to redistribute this material. As inventory selling runs its course, users will turn to normal sources of supply, stimulating additional production to meet needs. Stimulation in the form of higher prices will be determined by how fast producers are willing and able to return to the market.

Production costs are expected to have an increasing impact as it has become apparent that uranium resources are large in comparison to projected consumption. Conversely, security-of-supply issues have seemed to be of decreasing magnitude as Canada, Australia, and other non-U.S. producers continue to meet delivery commitments.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91038©1987 AAPG Annual Convention, Los Angeles, California, June 7-10, 1987.