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Comparison of Several Petroleum Forecasting Models, with Example from Western Gulf of Mexico

John H. Schuenemeyer, Lawrence J. Drew

A study was conducted to compare forecasts of undiscovered petroleum made by three supply models that obtain estimates of future petroleum by extrapolating historical drilling and discovery data. The models included in this study were a modified version of Arps and Roberts (AR), Hinde and Forman (HF), and Meisner and Demirmen (MD). The AR is a negative exponential model that produces estimates by size class of the ultimate number of fields to be found. It has been applied to several basins including the western Gulf of Mexico, the Denver basin, the North Sea, and the world offshore, and is found to produce reasonable estimates. The MD and a modified version, the HF, are relatively new models; they differ from the AR in structure and type of output. Both the HF and MD mode s forecast the distribution of the total recoverable petroleum corresponding to some future number of wildcat wells. The modification to the AR model results in estimates of the number of small fields expected to be found in mature areas. These models were implemented on a microcomputer. A comparison of the forecasts was made using the western Gulf of Mexico as an example. The HF and MD models produce interval estimates of the total petroleum forecast but are sensitive to the choice of drilling probability of success.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91043©1986 AAPG Annual Convention, Atlanta, Georgia, June 15-18, 1986.