Print this pageA DYNAMIC ECONOMIC INDICATOR TO EVALUATE SAGD PERFORMANCE
SHIN, Hyundon and POLIKAR, Marcel, , [email protected]
The 
economics
of a SAGD project are related to several production performance
parameters. The most significant parameters are steam oil ratio (SOR),
cumulative steam oil ratio (CSOR), calendar day oil rate (CDOR), ultimate
recovery (recovery factor, RF), and project life.
In previous work, an economic indicator, the simple thermal efficiency parameter (STEP), was developed to evaluate the performance of a SAGD project. Its usefulness as an economic indicator was validated qualitatively as well as quantitatively. STEP is based on CSOR, CDOR and RF for the time, in a given project life, corresponding to SOR = 4. A higher STEP value relates to a higher net present value (NPV). STEP was found to be a useful quantitative economic indicator.
In reality, the economics
of a thermal project strongly depends on the
economic limit of SOR and heavy oil price. In this study, a dynamic model for
STEP called STEP-D has been developed to be used as an economic indicator under
these changing conditions. STEP-D is calculated from the original STEP value by
including the two dynamic factors, heavy oil price and SOR economic limit.
For the STEP-D calculation, the economic limit of SOR was varied from 3 to 6 and the heavy oil price from $15 to $30, for three different oil sands reservoirs in Alberta. The results showed a good linear relationship between STEP-D and NPV, with a higher than 0.93 correlation coefficient. STEP-D may therefore be a useful economic indicator under dynamic situations.