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Digital
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7th Middle East Geosciences Conference and Exhibition
Manama, Bahrain
March 27-29, 2006
The Petroleum Institute, Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates, phone: 0097125085286,
[email protected]
Bayesian theory is used in order to make estimates of the monetary values (EMV) of seismic information before acquiring
the data. The procedure is illustrated on a hydrocarbon detection problem, on a 4D case, and on a structural resolution
problem. Applying this procedure for calculating EMV one might compare a seismic project on an equal footing with any
other projects competing for available funds. Obviously the parameters applied will be field dependent. However, making
sensitivity plots help with the problem of not knowing the a priori probabilities exactly. The approach can also be used to
evaluate seismic tenders. Typically they are separated into two groups, technically acceptable and unacceptable and the
job is given to the lowest bidder in the technically acceptable group. Calculating the EMV for each alternative one will be
able to assign a value to a survey depending on the parameters applied, say give a value to resolution power, to time and
spatial sampling rates, fold or proven processing
algorithm performance etc. This should end up with selecting the survey
acquisition or
processing
alternative that in fact is best for the problem at hand. Finally, before a survey is initiated, 4D or
ordinary survey, this methodology might be used to help estimate how much an oil company actually could pay for such a
survey, which should be useful information both for the receiver and producer of a tender.