Modern civilization, a growing population and globalization will become increasingly more dependent on access to large volumes of oil, gas, coal, industrial materials and water at reasonable costs.

Oil and gas supplies ~65% of the world’s energy (80 mb/d and 220 bcf/d gas; by the end of the decade it will be 90 mb/d and 280 bcf/d of gas). Renewable energy, excluding hydroelectric and nuclear, represent about 2% of production worldwide.

The geography and geopolitical setting of both production and consumption of oil and gas and petroleum based products is evolving toward fundamental change.

The peaking of conventional oil and gas production is sure to happen, and while the timing is uncertain, there are signs of change on the horizon. Enhanced oil recovery efforts and developing heavy oil and tar deposits will stretch supply.

Increased gas production will become more important and the required transport and facilities infrastructure will require huge up front investment.

The modern energy industry has experienced many discontinuities and has evolved to meet the challenges. The next stage of the energy business will be its greatest challenge as corporations try to meet the never ending demand for new sources of oil and gas as old fields are depleted.

These changes in the global energy balance have the potential for geopolitical (Nations) environmental, economic and security disruptions worldwide.

Recognizing and facing energy realities, learning from history and developing an integrated plan is critical for an industry that requires lead times of 10-15 years. Such a plan must include international relations - trade, global, economics, massive up front investment, innovative science and applied technology (Industry - Academic - Government).

I am optimistic about our energy future and the leadership that will be furnished by science and creative technology in a world without walls. The plans and operations must be conducted within the context of the environment of our beautiful planet and its wealth of creatures large and small.

Factors Driving Global Energy

(Figure 1)

Energy Dynamics, Opportunities, and Challenges

Speed, Volatility, Performance, Ethics, Networking, Wisdom

Figure 1. Factors driving global energy.

Global Geopolitical and Economic Environment

Representative Governments

Global Economy and Relations

Trade - Regulations - Blocks

Security - War - Terrorism

Energy Consumption and World Banking and Investment

Business Operations

Energy Discovery and Production

Trade - Transport

Refining to Products

Job Creation

Gross Domestic Product - GDP

Company Vitality - Research and Investment

Science and Technology

Knowledge

Innovation - Creativity

Information Systems - digital

People - Human Technology

Education - Skills

Population Demographics

Prosperity vs. Poverty

Emotional Maturity

World Peace and a Sustainable Environment

Discontinuities in Energy: Past, Present, and Future—

An Historical Perspective of Dealing with Change

Figures 2-10

	Figure 2. Petroleum industry time line, showing the eight phases of the petroleum industry.
	Figure 3. Early references to petroleum (from Bilkadi, 1995).
	Figure 4. Oil Creek - Pennsylvania, 1865. George Bissell, father of the oil industry, was a New York lawyer, who arranged for the initial financing to explore the Oil Creek area for oil, from which a high quality illuminant could be distilled.
	Figure 5. Old Baku: Bibi-Heybat oil fields in the South of Baku, circa 1910s (picture courtesy of the State Archives of Azerbaijan Republic - Photo and Cinema Department).
	Figure 6. Global Exploration: Field parties, Brunton compass, as a significant mapping tool, and 1924 geologic map of Northern Peru (ExxonMobil archives).
	Figure 7. Montage of geologists conducting field work, well-site workers, and log analyst.
	Figure 8. Lake Maracaibo, Venezuela, with facilities in the early part of its production history.
	Figure 9. Mud volcano, Azerbaijan, where commercial production was established around 1870 and where Baku was the largest oil field in the world around the turn of the 20^th century.
	Figure 10. Normandy beach, D-Day, 1944, with tremendous requirements for petroleum products.

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The Eight Phases of the Petroleum Industry (Figure 2)

Roots of the Petroleum Industry (Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6)

Years of Discovery (Figures 7, 8, 9, and 10)

Post World War II

(Figures 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16)

Figures 11-16

	Figure 11. Factors driving post World War II global energy.
	Figure 12. Oil for a world at peace (from Oil for Victory, 1946).
	Figure 13. Theodore Link, legendary petroleum geologist, also AAPG President 1955-56, demonstrating the application in the field of basic tools.
	Figure 14. Creole Field, Coast of Louisiana (from Wasson, 1948).
	Figure 15. The marine challenge, as illustrated by the environmental conditions encountered during offshore exploration and production.
	Figure 16. Plot of oil price, oil demand and discovered volumes, with and gas demand and discovered volumes (in billions of oil-equivalent barrels / US dollars--relative numbers, from 1900 to 2020).

Global Geopolitical & Economic Environment

Surge in Demand

US becomes Net Importer

Winds of Nationalization

Geopolitical Restructuring

State of Israel Formed and Colonies Fall

Marshall Plan

Cold War 1947 - Korean War 1950 - 1953

Stock Market (DOW) Reaches 500 Milestone in 1956

Population Inflection

Business Operations

Aggressive Global Search and Discovery

On-site Geologic and Engineering Investigations

Reestablishing Global Reach Limited to "The Western World"

Increasing Flow of Oil & Gas and Refined Products

ARAMCO Restructured

Companies Reorganized

Science - Technology - Knowledge

(Data - Information - Knowledge - Wisdom)

Revolutionary Advancements from War Years - High Octane Fuel, Butyl. Rubber, Lubricants

Direct and Indirect Impact of Technology

Technical Leadership in Academia, Government and Industry

Corporate Research Centers - Upstream and Downstream Enlarged

1st Offshore Drilling

Scouting - Global Information

Human Technology

"Experienced" Staff

Inventive "can do" Attitude

Global Maturity

Travel and Communication Advances

Training - Schools and Mentoring

Post Embargo / 1973 - 1980

(Figures 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, and 22)

Figures 17-22

	Figure 17. Factors driving global energy in post embargo (1973-1980).
	Figure 18. The self-organizing earth machine (Source: Harvard).
	Figure 19. Dynamics of planet earth (after Kellogg, 1999; Morse, 2001).
	Figure 20. Mediterranean earth tomography (from Bijwaard, Spakman, and Engdahl, 1998).
	Figure 21. Eustatic Cycle Chart #1—Phanerozoic (ExxonMobil Research)
	Figure 22. Sequence Stratigraphy A. In depth. B. In time. LSF=Lowstand fan, LSW=Lowstand wedge, HS=Highstand systems tract, TR=Transgressive systems tract, MW / SMW=Shelf margin wedge, CS=Condensed section. (P. R. Vail / Exxon Research Production Company.) (After Vail, 1987.)

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Global Geopolitical and Economic Environment

Nationalizations - Embargos (1973)

OPEC becomes a Major Force

Intense Cold War - Vietnam War Ends 1975

Oil Prices Increased 4x

Gasoline Shortages

Inflation Increased Sharply

Iran Hostage Crisis (1974)

Nixon Resigns (1974)

Stock Market Plunges (1974/75) Stagflation - GDP Dropped

Business Operations

Major Discoveries and Production come on line

New Global Offices Established by Industry

Oil & Gas Operations in USSR Surge

S.E. Asian Businesses Rise

Nationalization of oil properties

Science - Technology - Knowledge

Dynamic Earth Model - Applied (Regional) Projects

Research Centers merged (Carter- Humble)

Seismic Reflection, Stratigraphy and Attributes, 3-D

Seismic Data Processing

Sequence Stratigraphy

Micro - Paleo Develops Rapidly

Gravity and Magnetics

Satellite Imagery

Drilling begins move to Deep Water

Refining Advancements

Computers - Micro Chips

Human Technology

Staff Increases in Size and Experience

Extensive School System Develops at Research Lab.

Travel and Communication Surge

Integrated Regional Projects

Six Major Factors in Energy Planning

Only One Energy Event was Arguably a Real Crises

A Turning Point: THE 1973 OIL EMBARGO.

Some of What happened in the U.S. (from Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC -- February, 2004) ([email protected]).

· Oil prices increased ~ 4.5 x (Saudi crude)

· Gasoline rationed (even / odd days)

· Gasoline lines and spot shortages

· GDP dropped two years in a row (recession)

· Interest rates spiked dramatically upward

· Inflation increased sharply

· There was a huge wealth transfer to OPEC

U.S. Actions Resulting From the 1973 Oil Embargo (from Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC -- February, 2004) ([email protected])

· Price controls enacted

· CAFÉ implemented

· Higher efficiency mandated in a variety of sectors

· National speed limit (55 mpg) enacted

· Domestic oil & gas exploration & production spiked upward

· Federal energy R & D dramatically increased

· A major effort in synthetic fuels initiated

· Windfall profit taxes levied

· U.S. government reorganized to form ERDA, FEA & FERC

· IEA formed

· Strategic Petroleum Reserve established

· Formulation of a coherent national energy policy initiated

· Foreign policy adjusted to new realities

Recent: 1995-2001 (Figure 23)

Figures 23-27

	Figure 23. Factors driving global energy, 1995-2001.
	Figure 24. From irrational exuberance to infectious greed, with a plot of Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500-stock Index, along with quotations from two Alan Greenspan speeches (The Wall Street Journal, July, 2002; Source: Thompson Datastream for chart data).
	Figure 25. Merger acquisitions: deals closed / pending 1/1/98 to 2001, with estimated values.
	Figure 26. Top oil companies’ workforces (as of September, 2001). Table showing increased effectiveness and productivity.
	Figure 27. US Petroleum Engineering Workforce (Source: PetroStrategies, Inc.) (from Poruban, 2001).

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Global Geopolitical & Economic Environment

Major Mergers - Restructuring

Stock Market Surges (1995) and Falls (2001)

Globalization/Post cold war economy develops

Europe United - EU Currency

NGOs - Environment and Globalization

Balkans - Bombing (1999)

Oklahoma City Bombing 1995

World Trade Center and Pentagon Struck (2001)

Sanctions on Iran, Iraq, Libya

Business Operations

Major Corporations Develop from Mergers

Offshore West Africa Blooms

Caspian Sea North and South

Niger Delta and Equatorial Guinea

Indonesia and Sakhalin

Russian Industry Advances

Middle East Production Evolves /

Tensions rise

Science - Technology - Knowledge

Micro Chips and PCs Advance - Efficiency Surge

3-D Seismic and Attribute Analysis

Visualization

Communications - Cell Phones and Broad Band

Satellites - GPS, ICONOS, Interferometry, Geostat

Smart Materials

Robotics

Nano Technology Micro Machines

Human Genome Mapped

Medical Advances - Genes and Stem Cells

Cloning

Fuel Cells - Photo Voltaics and Combination Cars Advance

Climate Science Advances

Human Technology

Integrated Geoscience Emerges

Team Projects

Staff Matures

Hiring and Training Continue

The "New Economy" (Figure 24)

"How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?"—Alan Greenspan, December 5, 1995 speech.

"Why did corporate governance check and balances that served us reasonably well in the past break down? . . An infectious greed seemed to grip much of our business community. . ."—Alan Greenspan, July16, 2002 speech.

Corporate Consolidation (Figures 25, 26, and 27)

Science and Technology

(Figures 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, and 44)

Figures 28-44

	Figure 28. Montage of features illustrative of new technologies on background of an image of much of the Eastern Hemisphere.
	Figure 29. World gravity map (David Sandwell, SCRIPPS Institute; ExxonMobil Exploration Company, 2000).
	Figure 30. The gravity domain: westernmost Europe and North Atlantic.
	Figure 31. GPS - Micro-plate escape motion: Southeastern Europe Middle East, and North Africa (R.E. Reilinger, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Massachusetts).
	Figure 32. Differential SAR Interferometry: Hector Mine earthquake, October 16, 1999 (NASA / JPL). With radar data alone, at least three data sets are required for surface change detection. With continuous data collection as planned for LightSAR, time series of surface change can be monitored.
	Figure 33. Image of part of Washington, D.C., showing Washington Monument in lower left (Copyright by Space Imaging, L.P. & www.davekroger.com).
	Figure 34. Walking in the subsurface world.
	Figure 35. 3-D seismic reflection imagery (courtesy of Veritas).
	Figure 36. Examples of seismic attribute technology.
	Figure 37. Deep water drilling.
	Figure 38. Inside view of a deep water drilling rig.
	Figure 39. Drilling ship, as part of high arctic exploration.
	Figure 40. Borehole tool for tests in the subsurface high pressure, high temperature "atmosphere."
	Figure 41. Geosteering: a way to steer the well geologically.
	Figure 42. Interactive digital data systems: the global Schlumberger Omnes network (Euan Baird, Chairman and CEO Schlumberger, World Energy, 1999).
	Figure 43. Biomarkers: Environmental indicators and key to understanding source rocks, the core of the petroleum system.
	Figure 44. Exploration process: The HC systems model--diagrammatic cross-section illustrating the stages from source, maturation, migration, to entrapment.

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Sedimentary Basin Systems: Models in Our Minds

(Figures 45, 46, and 47)

Figures 45-47

	Figure 45. Systems within systems: diagrammatic cross-section.
	Figure 46. Diagrammatic cross-section illustrating the roles of sources, primary - 2nd, 3rd, 4th migration, trap, seal (T&B), maturation, and preservation, with salt in the petroleum system.
	Figure 47. Detection of surface-expressed fault and seepage.

The mental model of sedimentary basins envisioned here is that basins are complex, non-linear, self-organizing, dynamic natural systems. They are thrown in and out of thermodynamic and pressure equilibrium and experience both positive and negative feedback as they attempt to maintain equilibrium throughout their unique evolution.

The fluids (oil-gas-water) are the most unstable and mobile parameters of sedimentary basin systems and are the major agents in self organization on the maintenance of equilibrium.

Petroleum exploration is the science and art of envisioning multiphase fluid and rock interactions envisioned through time in a high pressure and temperature environment of the subsurface atmosphere.

A Forgiving Influence: Salt in the Petroleum System (open-closed-chaos systems) (Figures 45 and 46)
Salt and Shale Diapirs: Catalytic - Self Organizing Systems

Non-linear, Self-organizing Dynamic Systems Creates a "Subsurface Atmosphere."

Redistributes heat (conductive halite) and pressure
Fluids (gas-oil-water) move to equilibrate the system.
Mobile sediments move with fluids.
Alters basin chemistry NaCl) - Density flows

Molds the Shape of the Ocean Bottom

Withdrawal and fault subsidence
Forms itinerate basins - collects sands

Creates Traps

Forms structures - anticline and down-to-basin faults
Creates unconformities
Turtles

Creates Migration Pathways

Moves perpendicular to sedimentary layers
Breaks seals
Shale sheath conduits
Focus fluid flow

A Clue to Basin Dynamics and Compaction History

Direct and Indirect Oil and Gas Detection (Figure 47)

From Science to Business Ventures - Managing the Unknowable

(Figures 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, and 53)

Figures 48-53

	Figure 48. Integrated basin analysis, resource assessment, and business operations: Diagram illustrating the various disciplines/subjects that provide the technology, its tools, and scientific skills required to analyze basins, their hydrocarbon systems, resulting in numerical assessment so that wise action may be taken.
	Figure 49. Parts of a petroleum system (enlargement of that part of Figure 48), listing the requisites.
	Figure 50. Hydrocarbon parameters of sedimentary basins and decisions under uncertainty - managing the unknowable: Example: Offshore Brazil.
	Figure 51. Merging science - business ventures - human technology (enlargement of that part of Figure 48) that illustrates the factors utilized in determining risk vs. reward (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).
	Figure 52. Enlargement of the upper half of the diagram in Figure 51 -- Business Maturity and Project Economics (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).
	Figure 53. Enlargement of lower half of the diagram in Figure 51 -- Production Engineering and Operational Environment (after N.G. De’Ath, 1997).

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Knowledge - Forever a Student (Figure 54)

Figure 54. Group of geoscientists at AAPG International Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, 2003 (left). Some of those geoscientists studying data presented at the conference (right).

The power of knowledge - the sustainable resource - geology of Asia

Learning in Istanbul

In the non-linear, free energy market environment of 2004 and beyond, science and technology must be the foundation of decision-making.
Learning is at the heart of our ability to adapt to changing energy environments.
We must all be teachers, students, and mentors at the same time in a world without walls.

People (Figures 55 and 56)

Figure 55. The human factor.

Figure 56. Win/win human relations.

Success (Figure 57)

Figure 57. Marimba-1 (Angola) - Ocean Valent 1998 (ExxonMobil).

The Future to 2025 (Figure 58)

Figures 58-61

	Figure 58. Factors driving global energy, to 2025.
	Figure 59. World population and energy consumption (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).
	Figure 60. World energy consumption, GDP, 1970-2025. World energy consumption (upper left)(Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2003A. Projections: EIA, 2003B). B. World gross domestic product by selected countries and regions (32 - 67 trillion dollars, from 2001 to 2025). (Sources: Global Insight, Inc., World Economic Outlook, Vol. 1, Lexington, MA, Third Quarter 2003; EIA, 2003B; EIA, 2003C). (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 61. Global energy market mix: For 2000 and 2030 (left). Trends in world primary energy demand (right). (Source: International Energy Agency, 2002) (IPIECA, 2004).

Global Political and Economic Environment

Increasing degree of volatility and discontinuities - Afghanistan and Iraq

Increasing demand for crude, natural gas, and petroleum products

The world of declining petroleum resources

Intense competition for quality properties

Pressure on earnings growth - keeping costs - volumes up

Geopolitical awareness -NGOs environmental, and "Evil Doers"

Corporate reputation -performance

Public relations and safety

Embrace change -MAKE THE FUTURE

Business Operations

Performance and profitability

World basins continue to mature

Shifting center of growth for producing properties

Natural gas becomes a major player in the energy mix (LNG / GTL)

Increasingly complex high risk geologic opportunities

Increased development of static petroleum resources

Business and scientific relationships

Partner of choice

High operational performance

Sound safety and environmental performance

Scientific and technical leadership

Ethics and global maturity

Doing the right thing right

Science - Technology - Knowledge

Genetic basin analysis

Complexity science - fundamental knowledge - fractals /patterns

Advanced subsurface fluid models - (Atmosphere) at all scales

Robust research - upstream and downstream

Interferometry

Earth tomography

Non-seismic geophysics

Nano-Technology - Micro Machines

Military research - satellite gravity - smart materials

Climate science

Advanced data and information systems

Human Technology

A learning organization

Adaptive self-organizing system - leadership

People network - Multi-cultural and evolving demographics

Congruency, integration, and communication

Innovation and creativity by all

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World realities - Globalization, Advancing Technology, National Security

The confluence of change at the turn of the century has created a dynamic environment of opportunities, discontinuities, and challenges

Changing geopolitical climate - new markets and technologies drive economics.
Globalization creating an inter-connected world - geographies and virtual. Incomplete globalization debated (?). Shifts in employment and production capabilities. Trading blocks developing.
Mergers, buy-outs and consolidation occurring - backing oil and gas, defense, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and high tech companies, antitrust suits common and regulations becoming global.
Volatile military operations worldwide - terrorist organizations evolving, religious unrest and separatist movements active. NGOs militant environmentalists and animal rights groups, etc. Nation building in Afghanistan and Iraq.
New technologies tools and scientific advancements (concepts) increasing rapidly - non-linear acceleration.
World population rising rapidly: 1804 - 1.06 billion, 1900 - 1.5 billion, 1960 - 3 billion, 2000 - 6 billion, 2050 - ~9.1 (?) billion.
Prosperity and active stock markets in some countries - confusion, lawlessness and poverty in others. The "New Economy" replaced by viable "corporate earnings." China and India GDP rising and thirst for energy and base metals increasing.
Vast new, global, digital interactive data sets available to all. Instant communications and transactions.

The Sage of the Federal Reserve

Comments at the conference on energy Security - Washington, D.C., April 27, 2004 - Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2004 (with quotations from Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman):

The price of oil and gas contracts for delivery six years in the future indicates:

"The recent surge in oil and gas prices appear to be a long-lasting phenomenon, and could alter the magnitude and manner in which the United States consumes energy."
That the long term path of the US economy will be "significantly affected."
"A shift in expectations."
"The US must expand facilities for handling imported liquefied natural gas (LNG)."
"Higher gas prices in the US will prompt some gas-intensive industries such as petrochemicals and fertilizer manufacturers, to move facilities from the US to parts of the world where gas is less expensive.

The World’s Oil and Gas Endowment - Peak Oil

Next Big Thing: Peak Oil (from Williams, 2004—by Oil & Gas Journal Executive Editor)

". . . The last time this editor felt that kind of excite about a story with legs was the new wave of environmentalism sweeping the oil and gas industry that OGJ began tracking in the early 1980s and that exploded anew with the 1989 Exxon Valdez tanker spill.

"Next Big Thing

"The peak-oil debate is getting more polarized and more rancorous - and especially noteworthy, more politicized.

"So, here’s an immodest prediction: The peak-oil debate will be the Next Big Thing. The story with legs. The overarching them that will resonate throughout the oil and gas industry for decades to come. It will be propelled forward in the public consciousness not only by serious debate within the industry itself but also on the political hustings and antioil forces who can’t seem to pry Americans out of their sport utility vehicles even as war rages in the Middle East and Chicken Little lies sacrificed on the Kyoto altar.

"Iraq and Saudi Arabia will figure largely in that debate. So will Russia and the Caspian. And Orinoco oil and Athabasca tar sands. And reserves accounting transparency.

"And alternate energy viability.

"That last one once looked like it had legs too, circa 1979-1985. So you’ll see more coverage of alternate energy in OGJ in the years ahead. . . ."

Energy Consumption (Figures 59, 60, and 61)

Oil (Figures 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, and 72)

Figures 62-72

	Figure 62. EIA - World conventional oil production scenarios. Note: US volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals. (Source: EIA). (Williams, 2003).
	Figure 63. World demand vs. production (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 64. Trends in finding and developing costs, three-year moving averages, 1979-1981 to 1997-1999 (IEA, EIA, 2001).
	Figure 65. Historical development of the IEA crude oil import price (cif) (IEA, EIA, 2001)
	Figure 66. Total sediment fill. The habitat of petroleum and stratabound minerals (Bernard C. South, 1999).
	Figure 67. Published estimates of world oil ultimate recovery (D.L. Greene, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, J. L. Hopson, Jia Li, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Prepared by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, July 23, 2002).
	Figure 68. Conventional oil endowment of the world. World petroleum assessment 2000 (Ahlbrandt et al., 2001).
	Figure 69. Proven conventional oil reserves, in billions of barrels, according to continent or region (Fortune, November, 2001).
	Figure 70. Production and remaining reserves in largest UK fields (Read, 2002).
	Figure 71. Production and remaining reserves in largest Norwegian fields (Read, 2002).
	Figure 72. World oil production capacity by region and country, reference case, 1990-2025 (80-124 million barrels oil per day). (Sources: History: EIA, Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division. Projections: EIA, 2003B; US Geological Survey, 2000). (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).

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In Figure 62, Peak Ranges are 46 years (2021 to 2067) or 91 years (2021 to 2112); 900 billion barrels moves peak 10 years from 2047 to 2047. The table and chart do not include price feedback, political and geographic accessibility, geopolitical conditions or infrastructure.

Supplying oil and gas demand will require planning, technical skills and major up-front investment and risk (Figure 63).

The Era of Gas (Figures 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, and 78)

Figures 73-78

	Figure 73. Conventional natural gas endowment of the world. World petroleum assessment 2000. (Ahlbrandt et al., 2001).
	Figure 74. World natural gas consumption by region, reference case, 1990-2025. (Sources: History: EIA, 2003A.. Projections: EIA, 2003B). (US Department of Energy. 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 75. World natural gas consumption, 1970-2025. (Sources: History: EIA, 2003A.. Projections: EIA, 2003B). (US Department of Energy. 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 76. Advanced gas conversion for the 21^st century (AGC-21).
	Figure 77. Recoverable oil and gas resources (after M. Ray Thomasson, 2000).
	Figure 78. Unconventional hydrocarbon resources: obstacles to commercialization (after Bill Drennan / Art Green, April 10, 2002).

Unconventional Resources

"Beyond Petroleum"

Figures 79-90

	Figure 79. World recoverable coal reserves (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 80. Coal resources of the world—Western Hemisphere (Source: World Coal).
	Figure 81. Coal resources of the world—Eastern Hemisphere (Source: World Coal).
	Figure 82. World Coal Consumption, 1970-2025. In billion short tons (left); coal share of world energy and consumption by section, 2001 and 2025 (right). (US Department of Energy; 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 83. World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources, 1970-2025 ((US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 84, Gas driven electric power generator (Paul Bautista, Gas Technology Institute (Gas Research Institute), Chicago).
	Figure 85. Nuclear power: nuclear shares of national electricity generation, 2001 (left); operating nuclear power plants worldwide as of February, 2003 (center), and nuclear power reactors under construction as of January, 2003 (right). (US Department of Energy, 2003; www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html).
	Figure 86. Windmill farm (Fortune, November, 2001)
	Figure 87. The sun (Courtesy NASA/TRACE).
	Figure 88. Dynamics of Planet Earth (Kellogg et al., 1999; Morse, 2001) (reprint of Figure 19).
	Figure 89. Projected annual renewable water supply per person by river basin, 2025 (after Johnston et al., 2001) (World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.).
	Figure 90. Hybrid vehicles - fuel cells - combustion vehicles and hydrogen (Fortune, November, 2001).

Coal (Figures 79, 80, 81, and 82)

Hydroelectricity (Figures 83 and 84)

Nuclear Energy (Figure 85)

Wind Energy (Figure 86)

Solar Energy (Figure 87)

The diameter of the sun is 864,000 miles. Hydrogen and helium compose 95% of it. Energy is generated by thermonuclear fusion that converts hydrogen to helium. Solar flairs hurl radiation and particles into space. The plasma temperature is about 1million degrees. Bright region "sun spots" have higher density of coronal gas than dark regions.

Geothermal Energy (Figure 88)

Renewable Water Supply (Figure 89)

Efficiency and Conversation (Figure 90)

An Energy Scenario (Figure 91)

Figure 91. Energy consumption and mix, 1860-2060, along with population growth.

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A complex story of interacting variables and uncertain reserve figures

Assumptions

USGS 20000 World Resources

World GDD 2%

No major wars or economic collapses

Global free flow of energy products to consumers

Major construction of international transport and refining infrastructure

Globalization develops

Population increases

More nations prosper

New energy sources viable at end of period

Moderate conservation and efficiency increases

National oil companies and private companies cooperate.

Energy and Our Environment (Figure 92)

Figure 92. Cover of a report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, July 2003.

Energy, Nations, and Mankind’s Future (Figures 93, 94, 95, and 96)

Figures 93-96

	Figure 93. Energy, GDP, affluence, and life style: World gross domestic product in three economic growth cases, 1970-2025; (upper left), world energy consumption in three economic growth cases, 1970-2025 (lower left), GDP growth and energy closely linked 1970-2020 (right). (Sources: History: EIA, 2003A. Projections: EIA, 2003B).
	Figure 94. 1999 Industrial physics forum standard of living (A.R. Green and Vincent McKelvey, Late Director, USGS).
	Figure 95. USGS 2000 oil endowment (graduated green color) of assessed provinces superimposed on "Earth by Night" image (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).
	Figure 96. USGS 2000 oil endowment (graduated red color) of assessed provinces superimposed on "Earth by Night" image (Thomas S. Ahlbrandt, USGS).

Realities and Opinions of a Geoscientist

Oil and gas supplies 65% of the world’s energy:

80 million bbls per day and 220 billion cfg per day

By 2010, 90 million bbls per day and 280 bcf per day

Critical chemicals, lubes and refined products

Unconventional resources will increasingly be exploited - tar, heavy oil, tight gas, etc.

Subsurface geologic knowledge

Innovative production and refining methods

Renewable energy, excluding hydroelectric plants and nuclear represent about 2% of energy production worldwide.

Prospective geographic areas with large new oil and gas potential are becoming difficult to find, and viable contractual agreements are a challenge.

By 2020 much of the oil and gas feeding the global economy will come from fields not yet online - the center of gravity for oil and gas production is shifting.

The world power structure is self-organizing, breaking into a spectrum off political, social and religious entities, and NGOs.

· The EU in Brussels is becoming a controlling influence in international business and regulations.

· The large the world economy, the more powerful its smallest members John Naisbitt, Megatrends).

Geoscience, concepts, tools, and technology are developing at an accelerated pace.

Advancements in drilling and logging capabilities and breakthroughs in fuel and chemical research will be needed to meet the world’s growing energy needs.

We are just on the edge of understanding the fundamental complex earth processes that operate within the Earth’s subsurface realm.

Massive streams of information and new technology have never been more abundant - and yet to transform them into global, economic and social gain, requires the intellect, passion, and genius of the individual human mind working in concert with sophisticated cross-discipline international teams.

Human knowledge and experience - by 2015, 50% of the geoscientists and petroleum engineers conduction our exploration and production operations have not yet graduated from university.

The peaking of conventional oil and gas production is sure to happen, and while the timing is uncertain, there are signs of change on the horizon. Energy related projects are long term - ten to fifteen years leas time needed. Short term oversupply in the period leading up to peak production may result in complacency and inaction.

Meeting our energy needs in a world without walls is an essential prerequisite for a global transition to a more affluent work population, the growth of freedom and a sustainable environment for our beautiful blue planet.

Who is responsible for developing a workable energy program for the future? If not us - who is?

Figure 97. The earth.

References**

**Other references are given with the text and figure captions.

Ahlbrandt, T.S., and World Energy Assessment Team, 2001, World Petroleum Assessment 2000: Compiled Power Point Slides: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-50-Z, 112 p. (http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/OF99-50Z/)

Bijwaard, H., W. Spakman, and E.R. Engdahl, 1998, Closing the gap between regional and global travel time tomography: Journal Geophysical Research, B, Solid Earth and Planets, v. 103, no. 12, p. 30,055-30,078.

Bilkadi, Zayn, 1995, Aramco World, January/February, 1995.

De’Ath, N., 1997, Oil companies exploration strategies in the 21^st century: Bulletin of the Geological Society of Malaysia, no. 41, p. 5-11.

Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2003A, International Energy Annual 2001, DOE/EIA-0219 (2001), Washington, D.C., February, 2003.

Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2003B, System for the analysis of global energy markets.

International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), Climate Change Working Group, 2004, Energy, development, and climate change: considerations in Asia and Latin America: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 102.5 (February 2), p. 18-26.

International Energy Agency, 2002, World Agency Outlook, 2002.

Johnston, Nels, Carmen Revenga, and Jaime Echeverria., 2001, Managing water for people and nature: Science, v. 292, 11 May, p. 1071-1072.

Kellogg, Louise H., H. B. Hager, and R.D. van der Hilst, 1999, Compositional stratification in the deep mantle: Science, v. 283, no. 5409, p. 1881-1884.

Morse, S.A., 2001, Porous sediments at the top of earth’s core?: Science, v. 291, March 16, 2001.

Oil for Victory, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1946.

Poruban, Steven, 2001, Oil and gas industry continues to grapple: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 99.29 (September 24), p. 22-28.

Read, Roger, 2002, North Sea evolution to track Gulf of Mexico Model: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 100.34 (August 26), p. 40-44.

Vail, P.R., 1987, Seismic stratigraphy interpretation using sequence stratigraphy: part I: Seismic stratigraphy interpretation procedure, in Atlas of seismic stratigraphy, v. 1, AAPG Studies in Geology 27, p. 1-10.

U.S. Department of Energy, 2003, International energy outlook, May, 2003.

Wasson, Theron, 1948, Creole Field, Gulf of Mexico, Coast of Louisiana, in Structure of typical American oil fields, v. III, AAPG, p. 281-298.

Williams, Bob, 2003, Debate over peak-oil issue boiling over, with major implications for industry, society: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 101.27 (July 14), p. 18-29.

Williams, Bob, 2004, Next big thing: peak oil: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 102.15 (July 19), p. 15.

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Figure 13. Theodore Link, legendary petroleum geologist, also AAPG President 1955-56, demonstrating the application in the field of basic tools.

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World realities - Globalization, Advancing Technology, National Security

The confluence of change at the turn of the century has created a dynamic environment of opportunities, discontinuities, and challenges

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Oil (Figures 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, and 72)

The Era of Gas (Figures 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, and 78)

"Beyond Petroleum"

Geothermal Energy (Figure 88)

Renewable Water Supply (Figure 89)

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