2019 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition:

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Utilizing Multivariate Statistical Modeling to Incorporate Geologic, Operational, and Economic Variables to Develop a Graded Acreage Model in the Eagleford

Abstract

A graded acreage methodology is developed using interpolation methods, multivariate statistical modeling and data validation methods to relate geologic and operational variables to known production. The methodology utilizes the statistical relationship between input variables and known production to predict production across the play at a one square mile resolution. The result is a predictive map indicating expected peak monthly production which is then binned into various grades. To assess economic viability, the graded production model is combined with a type curve area map corresponding to single-well returns based on estimated ultimate recovery, capital and operating expenses, taxes and commodity price. The final product is a graded acreage model incorporating geologic, operational and economic variables to help drive investment decisions.