Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Forcing as a Control on Climate Change as Opposed to Orbital Cycles and Anthropogenic CO2 Forcing – Some Thoughts and Arguments

Abstract

It is postulated that Total Solar Irradiation (TSI) cycles are a significant driver in ice age temperature fluctuations. The hypothesis is discussed in terms of weaknesses in the Milankovitch theory, possible flaws in CO2 driven anthropogenic warming arguments, and empirical observations of cold events compared to the sun spot record. Publically available ice core data were analysed with respect to cycle frequency. A literature search was conducted of caveats to the Milankovitch theory and to the CO2 anthropogenic forcing theory. NASA’s TSI data were analysed for cyclic variation and compared to sun spot cycles. Human observed cold events (Thames Frost Fairs, etc.,) were correlated with the sun spot record. Results/observations 1) Forward projection of ice core cycles suggests the present interglacial period should soon end, and a new period of extended glacial advance will begin. 2) Greenlandic ice core data (last 10-ky) show decadal periods of warming/cooling on scale with rate of postulated anthropogenic warming. These observations are supported by studies of radiocarbon (14C) in Scandinavian peat moss (Geel and Ziegler, 2013). 3) The dominant 100-ky year pattern in ice core data cannot be accounted for by Milankovitch eccentricity (Roe & Allen, 1999; Tabor, et al., 2013). 4) ce core CO2 increases lag temperature increases by hundreds of years (Caillon, et al., 2003). 5) Alternative climate modeling shows doubling CO2 may lead to less than one degree of global warming (Gray, 2012). 6) NASA’s composite TSI data show solar flux variations ranging from 1365-1368 Wm-2 and correlate with cycles in the sun spot record. 7) Of the 14 Thames Frost Fairs that occurred over a two-hundred-year period after the sun spot record began, all but one correlates with a period of sunspot minima. Other cold events such as ‘hardest European winters’ show a good correlation with sunspot minima. It is widely accepted by both the public and multinational political circles (IPCC, etc.) that the anthropogenic release of CO2 has been the dominant driver of observed global warming since the start of the industrial revolution, and that forward projections of this trend will lead to additional significant warming. If TSI cycles are in fact the significant driver, then a change is warranted in how research is focused and how government policies and regulations are implemented.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90332 © 2018 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Cape Town, South Africa, November 4-11, 2018