--> U.S. EIA Expects Future U.S. Tight Oil and Shale Gas Production to Depend on Resources, Technology, Markets
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AAPG ACE 2018

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U.S. EIA Expects Future U.S. Tight Previous HitOilNext Hit and Previous HitShaleNext Hit Gas Production to Depend on Resources, Technology, Markets

Olga Popova1, Gary Long1, Jeffrey Little1, Neal Davis1, Steven Grape1, Elizabeth Panarelli1, Emily Geary1, April Volke1


1DOE EIA, Washington, DC, United States.


July 23 - 25, 2018 – AAPG ACE 2018,

Posted: July 23-25, 2018

Abstract

Based on projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's AEO2017, U.S. tight Previous HitoilNext Hit production is expected to reach 7.1 million barrels per day (b/d), and Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas production is expected to reach 79 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2040. These values reflect Reference case projections, while several side cases with different assumptions of Previous HitoilNext Hit prices, technological advances, and resource availability have different levels of tight Previous HitoilNext Hit and Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas production. U.S. production of tight Previous HitoilNext Hit and Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas has increased significantly from 2010 to 2016, driven by technological improvements that have reduced drilling costs and improved drilling efficiency in major Previous HitshaleNext Hit plays, such as the Bakken, Marcellus, and Eagle Ford.

Production from tight Previous HitoilNext Hit in 2016 was 4.9 million barrels per day, or 52% of total U.S. crude Previous HitoilNext Hit production. As Previous HitoilNext Hit prices recover, Previous HitoilNext Hit production from tight formations is expected to increase. By 2019, Bakken Previous HitoilNext Hit production is projected to reach 1.3 million b/d, surpassing the Eagle Ford to become the largest tight Previous HitoilNext Hit-producing formation in the United States. Bakken production is projected to reach 2.3 million barrels per day by 2040, almost a third of the projected U.S. total tight Previous HitoilNext Hit production.

Natural gas production from Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas plays in 2016 accounted for 41 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or 62% of total U.S. natural gas production. Natural gas production from Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas plays is expected to increase through 2040 in the AEO2017 Reference case. The two Appalachian Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas plays, the Marcellus and Utica, have factors favorable for production: shallower geologic formation depths and proximity to consuming markets. Both Appalachian Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas plays have remained resilient to the low natural gas prices and are projected to continue to drive total U.S. production in the long term. Previous HitShaleNext Hit gas production in these plays is expected to reach more than 40 Bcf/d by 2040, providing just over half of U.S. total Previous HitshaleNext Hit gas production.

Two Previous HitoilNext Hit price side cases illustrate the effect of higher or lower global crude Previous HitoilNext Hit prices on production from tight formations. By 2040, the global benchmark Brent crude Previous HitoilNext Hit spot price averages $73/b in the Low Previous HitOilNext Hit Price case, $136/b in the Reference case, and $230/b in the High Previous HitOilTop Price case.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90323 ©2018 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Salt Lake City, Utah, May 20-23, 2018