Shale Gas Dominates U.S. Gas Resources: Results From 2016 Assessment of the Future Gas Supply by the Potential Gas Committee

Abstract

The latest biennial assessment of the U.S. natural gas resources by the Potential Gas Committee (PGC) indicates that the country possesses a total technically recoverable resource base of 2,817 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of year-end 2016. This is the highest resource evaluation in the PGC’s 52-year history, exceeding the previous high assessment (from 2014) by 302 Tcf (increase of 12%). When the PGC’s assessments of technically recoverable resources are combined with EIA’s latest determination of proved reserves (324 Tcf of natural gas as of year-end 2015), the U.S. future supply of natural gas stands at a record 3,141 Tcf, an increase of 288 Tcf (10%) over the previous evaluation. The increase resulted mainly from reassessments of shale gas resources in the Atlantic, Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain areas. The Atlantic area ranks as the country’s richest resource area with 39% of total U.S. traditional resources, followed by the Gulf Coast (including the Gulf of Mexico) with 20%, Rocky Mountains with 17%, and the Mid-Continent with 14%. The largest volumetric gains from 2014 assessment to 2016 assessment (214 Tcf or 26%) were reported in the Atlantic area. The major reason for the increase is new drilling and production results from Marcellus, Utica and Rogersville shale plays in the Appalachian basin. Mid-Continent assessments rose by 73 Tcf (25%), reflecting intensive developments of the Woodford shale in the Anadarko basin, the Barnett shale in the Fort Worth basin, as well as expansion of the Woodford and Mississippian shale development in the Permian basin. Gas resources in the Rocky Mountain area increased by 6 Tcf (1.4%). This resource growth reflects developments in the Mancos and the Niobrara plays in the Piceance basin. Although the Gulf Coast area had a modest overall increase of only 1.5 Tcf (0.3%), the PGC made significant adjustments for specific provinces and plays in the current assessment. New geotechnical data obtained for the Eagle Ford play, and better well performance in the Haynesville and Bossier plays, resulted in a significant growth of shale resources. On the other hand, most likely resources for some of the conventional reservoirs such as the Wilcox, Cotton Valley and Bossier sands were reduced. The growing importance of shale gas in the U.S. is evidenced by the fact that the PGC’s mean total assessed shale gas resource of 1,797 Tcf for 2016 accounts for approximately 64% of the country’s total potential resources.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90323 ©2018 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Salt Lake City, Utah, May 20-23, 2018