Operational Earthquake Forecasting for Evaluating Seismicity

Abstract

Time-variable seismicity rates and spatial patterns pose a number of significant challenges to earthquake hazard assessments, public safety, strategic planning and other decision-making processes. Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) offers one method to help address some of these issues. The Oklahoma Geological Survey is now employing a publicly available OEF model for Oklahoma. These OEF models were developed with the goals that stakeholders could understand the method, automated and regularly updated, and should reflect the current science and changing seismicity rates. We will present the choices and basic principles used to create the time and spatial OEF models within Oklahoma. In addition, interpreting the information provided as part of this effort can be very informative to different stakeholders if interpreted appropriately. The different data products generated within the OEF framework will be examined such as declustered seismicity rates in space and time. The implications from recurrence rates and b-values can also help decision-makers in the proper context. We will examine some examples from these evaluations within the routine OEF calculations for evaluating seismicity within the region.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90221 © 2015 Mid-Continent Section, Tulsa, Oklahoma, October 4-6, 2015