A Statistical Lookback at Exploration Trends North of 60 Degrees

David B. McCaleb¹ and Richard Kyle^2
1 IHS Energy, Houston, TX
² IHS Energy

With the ever broadening prospect that a natural gas pipeline from the Mackenzie Delta to the lower 48 could become a reality in addition to a proposed Arctic natural gas pipeline from Alaska's North Slope; the prospects for an increase in exploration activity in the area North of the 60th parallel can become very real over the next ten years.

This poster will look at a statistical analysis of historical exploration activity comparing leasing activity and exploration drilling and the relationship between discoveries and the effects on bid amounts garnered from the various bid rounds and lease sales in an effort to identify what level of activity can be expected in the next few years.

The main focus will be on Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon and Nunavut. While activity has been minimal in the Yukon and Nunavut, Alaska and the Northwest Territories indicate the expected cost of leasing for those areas. As an example, over the last five years leases in the Cook Inlet of Alaska have been acquired on average for US$ 9.32 per acre. Also the success ratio has increased in recent years. On the North Slope average bid per acre shows some separation between onshore and offshore as onshore leases average US$ 16.29 per acre and offshore acreage average US$ 52.28. This is excluding the opening of new areas which typically bring a higher bid per acre as the poster session will show.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90039©2005 AAPG Calgary, Alberta, June 16-19, 2005