WEISS, W. W., R. BROADHEAD, and A. SUNG, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

ABSTRACT: Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. "Expert" systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration "expert" tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of "fuzzy" logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated "Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool."

This tool will be beneficial in many regions of the US, enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting and decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the US as reserves are depleted. The expert exploration tool will benefit a diverse group in the US, leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. Additional detail is available at: (http://baervan.nmt.edu/REACT/reacthomepage.htm).

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90915©2000 AAPG Rocky Mountain Section, Albuquerque, New Mexico