The amount of data available to the explorationist is overwhelming and is often difficult to assess for the purpose of doing a proper risking of a play-model or a prospect. It is therefore a need to make data more accessible to the explorationists as well as a need to organize the data. The flow of analysis of data is logic to most G&G people but often the risk connected to the data and the sensitivity of that data is unknown. What could be done in order to visualize the risks connected to certain geological input parameters and to show the effect upon these sensitivities?

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sources of uncertainties and what could be done to visualize the effect upon these uncertainties. G&G decision support systems have been used in order to organize and visualize the input parameters risk factors. These evaluations could lead to a better understanding of prospect risk simulation and to better be able to assess the geological input parameters in an orderly fashion. The three input categories; Reservoir, source and trap has been evaluated and elements within each of these categories have been analyzed.

The explorationist need to have a proper understanding of what they risk and perform risking according to certain established procedures in order to ensure proper and uniform use of the risk analysis. In order to be able to communicate the message to non G&G people there is a need for mutual understanding of a probability scale within the risking of geological input parameters. The risking is a part of the play-model development and prospect analysis done during the refinement of the exploration work. Sensitivity analysis in Basin analysis is therefor crucial in order to be able to do proper risk analysis on the input parameters.

We have brought risk analysis, basin analysis and reservoir prediction together in order to get a proper risk factor understanding of an area. This method is applicable to a whole range of areas worldwide and could lead to a better understanding of risk factors in a given basin. It also makes analysis results more available to the G&G people as well as the exploration and production decision makers.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90928©1999 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas