THOMSEN, RENE ORLA, Saga Petroleum a.s., Sandvika, Norway; ANNE-MARIE JEPSEN, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; and FREDERIC MAUBEUGE, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

ABSTRACT: Sensitivity Analysis and Data Resolution: Important Aspects of Quantitative Basin Analysis

Quantitative basin analysis is routinely used in assessing volume estimates of generated hydrocarbons in basins and subbasins. For this, computer simulation in one- and two-dimensions is often used. Important questions to be answered in any quantitative assessment are the resolution limits of any given set of parameters and the sensitivity of the total system within the range of these parameters. These assessments, which should reveal the critical features of any given system, have become more feasible thanks to the growing availability of the new generation of powerful hardware. Examples will be shown of how sensitivity analysis and investigation data resolution can provide useful information for further prospect evaluation. Furthermore, the resolution limits of the specified paramet rs together with the uncertainty on the simulation results can be used directly through a probabilistic approach for risk assessment.

The method is illustrated through an analysis of how poorly constrained geological parameters, such as paleoheat flux, timing, and amount of erosion are affecting the hydrocarbon generation. The influence of these parameters on the expulsion processes also will be discussed.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90990©1993 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, The Hague, Netherlands, October 17-20, 1993.