Knowledge-Based Expert System to Evaluate Petroleum Exploration Opportunities

Donald F. Beaumont

The Exploration Potential Evaluation Consultant (EXPO) is an integrated system consisting of carefully selected knowledge bases and their supporting data bases, an inference engine that selects and explains appropriate parts of the knowledge bases and system-generated scenarios, and interfaces to access proprietary information. It includes frontier basins, subbasins, plays and trends, and prospect groups. The system's knowledge bases can be easily modified and expanded by the user.

This system produces a complete opportunity model consisting of submodels of the geology, economics, and investment risk. These three submodels correspond to the exploration perspectives of the system's primary users, i.e., geologists, production planners, and executive managers responsible for their companies' worldwide exploration portfolio.

Three examples are cited to illustrate typical user sessions. One example makes extensive use of the analog library to supplement limited known data for the opportunity. Another illustrates the interfacing of library data with an opportunity data set that is much more complete. A third derives the management investment portfolio of exploration opportunities that is most likely to achieve tactical and strategic production objectives within company guidelines of available resources, economic forecasts, and policies.

The expert system's architecture integrates three views by automatic propagation of pertinent information among views while maintaining system-wide consistency among each. Also, the user can access complete documentation and explanation of all information contained or generated. A good expert system should provide explorationists with powerful capabilities and substantially improved efficiencies.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #91038©1987 AAPG Annual Convention, Los Angeles, California, June 7-10, 1987.