Abstract: Role of Nuclear Energy in Future of Circum-Pacific Area

H. E. Shaw

Nuclear energy is only a part of the total energy picture. To appreciate its role, a brief review of the characteristics of the energy "situation" is required. These characteristics include such elements as trends in world oil and gas supplies, potential coal supplies, advanced energy technologies, and the impact of insufficient energy. Within this total energy context, nuclear power can and should play a substantial role in the energy plans of the nations surrounding the Pacific Ocean.

The necessary technology and manufacturing capacity are available to achieve this objective. Major constraints on nuclear growth are environmental, institutional, and political (the concern about nuclear-weapons proliferation). Although having some basis in fact, these constraints have a much greater impact than is justified.

Aside from its prime dependence on the worldwide growth rate of nuclear power, the future demand for uranium also is strongly dependent on the specific reactor technology used, the extent of uranium and plutonium recycle from spent nuclear fuels, and the rate of development and implementation of breeder reactor technology. Published estimates of world uranium resources vary widely. Because the demand for uranium for defense purposes appears to have stabilized and may be declining, the demand for uranium has become associated more closely with the deployment of civilian power reactors. As a result, the demand for uranium has been somewhat sporadic and the incentive to locate, define, and develop new sources has been minimal. However, this situation is changing rapidly.

The growth of nuclear power in the United States has been constrained in unanticipated ways, suggesting the need for better planning in the future. It is essential that all nations benefit from this past experience and devote sufficient emphasis to comprehensive energy planning.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90962©1978 AAPG 2nd Circum-Pacific Energy and Minerals Resource Conference, Honolulu, Hawaii