Abstract: Computer Analysis of Regional Well-Density Data for Predicting Undiscovered Hydrocarbon Reserves

E. C. Dahlberg, K. N. Nairn, R. M. Procter

One especially critical aspect of hydrocarbon-resource appraisal is that of evaluating the exploration maturity of a particular play, prospect, or basin. Because the degree of uncertainty inherent in a priori estimates of undiscovered hydrocarbons is a function of not only the number of drill holes but also where they are and how much section they have explored, it is necessary to have a means for comparing these factors from area to area, formation to formation, etc.

A regional screening technique has been developed and is being applied to the major play areas in western Canada. The results in the forms of curves relating potential pool area to existence probability allow assessment of the relative reliability of the information involved.

The same model is used to assess the likelihood that a particular population of inferred pools to which the potential oil and gas have been allocated could realistically exist within the spatial limits of the play concerned. In a relatively well-explored region such as the Western Canadian basin, for purposes of resource planning and supply modeling it is necessary to know in what geographic areas the anticipated reserves will be found as well as how large (or small) they will be.

Such information also aids exploration-program planners in directing their attention toward the least explored parts of the province not only in the two-dimensional sense but in the three because, if future true "giants" remain to be discovered, this is where they will be found.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90961©1978 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma