Print this pageAbstract: Probability Methods of Oil Exploration in Northwestern Kansas
Oil exploration is an exercise in applied probability, where the odds for success are low. Explicit knowledge of the odds associated with specific locations should aid explorationists in the selection of prospects which are relatively the most favorable. These odds can be determined by formal analysis of the frequency-probability relations between oil occurrence and geology.
In northwestern Kansas, some areas have been drilled extensively but other areas remain relatively virgin. Probabilistic relations can be estimated in mature "training" areas and then used for exploration in nearby "target" areas which are similar geologically but explored less intensely. In one phase of the Kansas Oil Exploration (KOX) Project of the Kansas Geological Survey, the probabilistic relation between discovery and perceived structure on the Lansing-Kansas City Group in Graham County, Kansas, was determined. These probabilities then were used to elevate the probabilities of undiscovered reservoirs in the Lansing-Kansas City Group in nearby areas of northwestern Kansas. The probabilities of success reflect not only the conditional relation between local structure and oil accumulation, but also the uncertainty in perception of the geologic structures which results from lack of subsurface control. Probabilities can be mapped across the target area, delineating those areas estimated to be most favorable for exploration.
APG Search and Discovery Article #90974©1975 AAPG Mid-Continent Section Meeting, Wichita, Kansas