Integrated Analysis of Six Major U.S. Shale Gas Basins and Shale Oil Basins: Work Flow, Geology and Original Resource in Place

Abstract

Abstract

The study, conducted by the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin, and funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, integrates engineering, geology and economics in a numerical model that allows for scenario testing based on many input parameters. The first phase of the study investigated production from four major U.S. shale gas formations: Barnett, Fayetteville, Haynesville and Marcellus. The second phase of the study will investigate two major shale oil plays over the next two years, the Bakken and the Eagle Ford.

Some findings: In the base case of the Barnett, the study forecasts a cumulative 44 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable reserves, with annual production declining in a predictable curve from the current peak of 2 TCF per year to about 900 billion cubic feet (BCF) per year by 2030. A summary report on the Barnett portion of the study has been published in two parts in the Oil and Gas Journal (August and September, 2013; posted as Parts 1 and 2 in the “Publications” section of this site)

Drawing on production data from all of the individual wells drilled in the Fayetteville Shale from 2005-2011, the Bureau's assessment estimates technically recoverable gas reserves for the region at 38 Tcf, of which 18.2 Tcf will be economically feasible to recover at natural gas prices near $4 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) through 2050. A summary report on the Fayetteville portion of the study has been published in the Oil and Gas Journal (January, 2014; posted in the “Publications” section of this site).

Although low natural gas prices have slowed development in the Haynesville shale gas play of east Texas – northwest Louisiana, the Shale Study team believes the play remains promising. In its base-case scenario (conservative pricing and other parameters), it estimates that 46 TCF of cumulative Haynesville production will come from existing and new wells to be drilled through 2045 and producing through 2064. A summary report on the Haynesville portion of the study has been published in the Oil & Gas Journal (December, 2015; posted in the “Publications” section of this site).

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90260 © 2016 AAPG/SEG International Conference & Exhibition, Cancun, Mexico, September 6-9, 2016