Planning for Success in Colombia

Abstract

What does it take to find petroleum in a frontier basin? I call the process “Planning for Success”. It seems counterintuitive to plan for something that has only a remote chance of success when most exploration fails anyway. Many people think frontier exploration is too risky, but looking for petroleum in a proven basin with old ideas is much harder. Uncertainty works in your favor in frontier basins because the resources present may be much bigger than anyone expects. The best definition of exploration is “exploring involves building a sense of the future based on incomplete and evolving information”. To outsiders, we make outrageous forecasts of what can be expected to be found in a basin with limited data and our imperfect understanding of successful analog basins, and yet it works. Planning for success begins with picking the right opportunity. There's no point looking where everybody already is. One of the big mistakes companies make is looking for petroleum where they'd like it to be instead of where the data tells you to go. Below ground issues to consider: is there sufficient seismic or wells to define a basin, is the sediment isopach thick enough to mature a source rock, and is there a reasonable chance of materiality? Above ground issues can be just as important: is the opportunity located in an acceptable political and operating environment, are the contract terms acceptable, and is the expected product monetizable? We continuously screen potential investment opportunities as new data is acquired, new technologies are developed, and commodity prices and contract terms change. In my experience we are never first in a basin, somebody has already acquired the basic seismic data or drilled a well. Did they fail because of the grapes were sour (as the fox said in Aesop's fable), or because the technology needed to identify and harvest the sweet grapes wasn't developed yet?

This talk will discuss how Anadarko used its frontier basin screening process to identify the deepwater Magdalena basin as an attractive exploration opportunity, acquired additional seismic and regional well data, accumulated over 16 MM gross exploration acres and drilled our first deepwater discovery well with partner Ecopetrol.

AAPG Datapages/Search and Discovery Article #90259 ©2016 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, June 19-22, 2016