--> Abstract: An Approach to Limit Uncertainties in an Integrated, Regional Scale Petroleum Systems Model in the Western Barents Sea Region, by Matthias Daszinnies; #90177 (2013)

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An Approach to Limit Uncertainties in an Integrated, Regional Scale Petroleum Systems Model in the Western Barents Sea Region

Matthias Daszinnies

The western part of the Norwegian Barents Sea has gained a very high exploration interest due to the recent successful HC discoveries near the Loppa High structure (Skrugard and Havis). This exploration area is part of a larger set of NNE-SSW trending fault systems. They separate the deeply buried Cretaceous age basins in the West from older palaeo-high and rift basin structures in the East. Exploration along these fault systems is challenging because water depth ranges from 250 m to more than 2000 m. Furthermore, information on deeply buried sections is very sparse but crucial for the understanding and modeling of the regional petroleum system. Petroleum system models constitute an integral component in hydrocarbon exploration strategies today. Even though key concepts of petroleum system plays are well mimicked by numerical models, uncertainties exist about model input parameters, particularly if default values are chosen due to e.g. lack of well data. These uncertainties propagate into the model results. This fact is even more significant for regional scale basin models which attempt to make petroleum system predictions over distances of several tens of kilometers with limited well data coverage. We will present a workflow for an integrated Mesozoic petroleum systems model at regional scale in the western Norwegian Barents Sea. It aims to reduce input parameter uncertainties and to quantify the migration model sensitivity. This concept combines the filtering of source-rock model solutions with Monte Carlo type migration models by using known discoveries as a reference. In our approach we will demonstrate how forward modeling of source-rock properties is used to generate a set of source-rock model solutions for the Hekkingen Formation. They are all in line with well observations but differ distinctly away from well control. These source-rock models are tested in various hydrocarbon migration simulations to evaluate their feasibility in explaining HC discoveries, select the best fitting source-rock model and exclude less reasonable solutions for the given HC play. Subsequently, the entire secondary migration run setup of the HC play is subjected to a Monte Carlo type simulation approach. Thereby, several input parameters (e.g. the source-rock thickness) are varied to evaluate the migration model's robustness towards them. The case results will show how the outlined workflow provided a very good match between predicted modeled HC flow and very recent findings near the Loppa High.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90177©3P Arctic, Polar Petroleum Potential Conference & Exhibition, Stavanger, Norway, October 15-18, 2013