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Shale Production Decline Trend Comparison over Time and Basins: Does the Arp’s Analysis Still Hold True

Jason Baihly¹, Raj Malpani¹, Atif Malayalam¹, Keith Atwood¹, Raphael Altman¹, and Jian Xu²
¹Schlumberger, Houston TX, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]  
²Schlumberger, Chengdu, China, [email protected]

Gas prices are down across North America and drilling activity has fallen off in places like the Barnett and Haynesville Shale plays, but thousands of horizontal wells have been drilled across these and other shale gas basins over the past decade. With such a large number of wells drilled, shale gas may have a long term impact on North American production. However, skepticism still remains on the true long term well production decline trends, estimated ultimate recoveries (EURs) per lateral, and the overall economic viability of these horizontal shale gas plays.

We update the production decline trend analysis from SPE 135555. This paper included the Barnett, Fayetteville, Woodford, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford Shale plays. Each play is analyzed to determine if our initial Arp’s decline trends still hold true and if further improvements have been made. Where applicable, we address some of the technological improvements that have further impacted well productivity. The same core areas will be analyzed in order to reduce the amount of wells to a reasonable number for analysis purposes.

The results of this analysis will determine if the previously calculated Arp’s decline trends are still on course to accurately predict EUR’s of these horizontal shale wells. Any deviations in production behavior including lateral spacing will be discussed. The number of wells actively producing in each basin will be determined. Furthermore, the potential impact of future production from each play with only existing wells producing will be examined to determine the potential deliverability across time.


AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90154©2012 AAPG Eastern Section Meeting, Cleveland, Ohio, 22-26 September 2012