--> ABSTRACT: Is the Colombian Boom Sustainable? Recent Developments and the Key Exploration Plays for the Future, by de Freitas, Mario G.; #90142 (2012)

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Is the Colombian Boom Sustainable? Recent Developments and the Key Exploration Plays for the Future

de Freitas, Mario G.*1
(1) Exploration, Hocol SA, Bogota, Colombia.

Colombia is one of the fastest growing hydrocarbon provinces in the world, with a daily production growth of 100% in the last five years, which in absolute terms ranks in the top ten worldwide. The country is joining the select group of >1 million boepd producers and is attracting substantial foreign investment. The number of players, new E&P contracts and the level of seismic, drilling and engineering activities rose accordingly.

However, a closer analysis reveals a major unbalance between the sharp rise in production and the reserve additions coming from exploration. A substantial portion of the new production and reserves derives from aggressive (re) development programs applied to old fields, particularly on heavy oil fields in the Llanos and Middle Magdalena basins.

The contribution of recent exploration successes accounts for about half of the new production and reserves. No giant (>500 mmboe) field was discovered in this five-year period, with few large (>100 mmboe) and many small to mid-sized discoveries. This poses the question on whether the current booming environment can be sustained.

Based on a comprehensive database, we illustrate some of the most important recent discoveries and risk some predictions on where the next significant finds are likely to be made.

Recent large discoveries in Colombia comprise (i) deep gas-condensate bearing Paleogene sandstones in structurally complex antiformal stacks in the foothills of the Eastern Cordillera, (ii) heavy oil bearing Eocene sandstones in inverted structures in the Caguan-Putumayo and (iii) heavy oil bearing Oligocene sandstones in stratigraphic traps of the Llanos foreland basin. These three plays are seen to continue yielding most of the new large finds in the next 5-10 years. In addition, the offshore basins may add significant (gas) resources.

In spite of the estimated large resource base for unconventionals, particularly gas-shale and tight-gas, we foresee major difficulties for its successful commercial implementation in the short term.

The majority of the small to mid-sized fields were concentrated in the Llanos basin, in subtle structural traps for Eocene-Oligocene sandstones. This play shall remain the focus of the small to mid-sized players in Colombia and contributing with many new finds, albeit with a modest aggregate contribution to replace the increased production. In addition, the Lower Madgalena Valley is envisioned as a new source of significant new (mostly gas) discoveries.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90142 © 2012 AAPG Annual Convention and Exhibition, April 22-25, 2012, Long Beach, California