“Say What We Mean and Mean What We Say”: The Unified Upstream Risk Model as a Force for Shared Understanding

Sykes, Mark A.¹; Hood, Kenneth C.¹; Salzman, Steven N.¹; Vandewater, Christopher J.¹
(1)ExxonMobil Exploration Company, ExxonMobil Corporation, Houston, TX.

The evaluation of geologic risks associated with plays, prospects, unconventional resources and development and production drill-wells is a fundamental component of the upstream asset evaluation process at ExxonMobil. The results of these analyses determine not only the estimated chance-of success of an opportunity, but also a prediction of the assets’ hydrocarbon volume potential.

Geoscience risk models have evolved over many decades of research and application. A new synthesis - the “Unified Upstream Risk Model” - has been developed at ExxonMobil. This initiative has been driven by a desire to promote greater common understanding of assessment terms across the global geoscience and management communities within the company, and to ensure consistent application of risking concepts worldwide.

Without such a unified model, understanding of the definitions of each of the geologic risk factors and their related volumetric products may be inconsistent. Such inconsistencies may potentially lead to confusion, both during the analysis phase, and when communicating results to management and decision-makers. Consequently, it may be difficult to fully comprehend assessment results, and compare them easily between opportunities. The aim of the new “Unified Upstream Risk Model” is to enhance and align appreciation of petroleum systems, and how interpretation thereof translates into risk severity judgments.

When geoscientists and management all share a common understanding of the definitions of the individual geologic risk elements, their products, and the associated volumetric measures presented, investment decision-making are significantly optimized. Each asset under consideration can now be evaluated via a fulsome discussion of its technical merits, without encumbering the discussion with misunderstandings regarding terminology and descriptors. Furthermore, application of the consistent definitions and principles outlined in the model across the upstream companies ensures that all assets and opportunities worldwide are evaluated on the same numerical basis and can therefore be truly compared, like-with-like, in order to make appropriate investment decisions.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90135©2011 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Milan, Italy, 23-26 October 2011.