AAPG ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION
Making the Next Giant Leap in Geosciences
April 10-13, 2011, Houston, Texas, USA
(1) Potential Gas Agency, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO.
The Natural Gas Year-In-Review 2009 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, July 2010) highlights six recent developments in the U.S. natural gas industry, several of which established all-time records:
Gas consumption fell 2% from 2008, to 62.6 Bcf/day;
Net imports recorded a 15-year low of 2,677 Bcf;
Natural gas storage reached 3,833 Bcf, the highest on record;
Wellhead gas prices averaged $3.71/Mcf, the lowest level in 7 years;
Marketed U.S. production reached the highest level seen since 1973;
Proved reserves and technically recoverable resources set new records.
Several of these developments are counter-intuitive, illustrating the complexity of our industry. This talk analyses the geological, technological, and economic factors that have led to the current situation. In particular, the effects of decreasing demand in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, increasing shale gas production and relative stabilization of coalbed methane production, continuing uncertainties in public policy at the state and federal level, and varying datasets and approaches in resource assessment methodologies are addressed.
Finally, a schematic eight-part model relating sufficient supply to meet forecasted demand is presented.