--> Abstract: Results of the U.S. Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA), by Don Gautier; #90130 (2011)

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Results of the U.S. Geological Survey Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA)

Don Gautier
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA.

The volume of petroleum yet to be found in the Arctic is one of the greatest remaining uncertainties to future oil and gas supply and a subject of international concern. While most onshore areas north of the Arctic Circle have been at least partially explored, the vast continental shelves, which cover one third of the Arctic, are largely undrilled. Using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle. The Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) has three components: (1) compilation of a geological map of sedimentary successions that might be prospective for petroleum, (2) quantitative assessment of undiscovered technically recoverable resources, and (3) quantitative appraisal of the costs to find, develop, and deliver the resources to market. Based on the new mapping, the Arctic was subdivided into 69 assessment units (AUs), 48 of which were quantitatively assessed. The assessment suggests that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered conventional gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil might be found in the Arctic, most of it offshore under less than 500m of water. The undiscovered resources are unevenly distributed; billion barrel or six trillion cubic feet-plus accumulations are predicted at a 50% probability in eleven of the CARA assessment units located in the Barents Sea, East and West Greenland, the Mackenzie Delta, offshore northern Alaska, the Lena River Delta, and the Yenisey-Khatanga basin. On an energy-equivalent basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russia, particularly in the South Kara Sea and in the eastern Barents Sea, where some of the world’s largest gas accumulations may remain to be found. Undiscovered oil resources, while critically important to the Arctic nations, are probably not sufficient to significantly shift the current geographic patterns of world oil production. In addition to the highly heterogeneous distribution of undiscovered petroleum, the costs of finding, developing and delivering the yet-to-find resources to market are expected to be among the highest in the world and to vary widely around the Arctic. Successful Arctic exploration will need to account for both geological and economic uncertainties.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90130©2011 3P Arctic, The Polar Petroleum Potential Conference & Exhibition, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, 30 August-2 September, 2011.