--> Abstract: Play Resource Evaluation and Geological Risk Assessment with Model-Based Simulation, by Zhuoheng Chen, Kirk G. Osadetz, Suyun Hu, Qiulin Guo, and Shiyun Mi; #90078 (2008)

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Play Resource Evaluation and Geological Risk Assessment with Model-Based Simulation

Zhuoheng Chen1, Kirk G. Osadetz1, Suyun Hu2, Qiulin Guo2, and Shiyun Mi2
1Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Calgary, AB, Canada
2Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, PetroChina, Beijing, China

Stochastic simulation has been proven a useful tool for studying reservoir heterogeneity and revealing the associated uncertainties in petroleum exploration and exploitation. The application to petroleum resource assessment results in predicted undiscovered accumulations with geographic locations. The associated uncertainties with the prediction provide information useful for exploration risk analysis. A model-based simulation approach for resource assessment and risk evaluation has been developed by the Geological Survey of Canada, which includes a spatial correlation model for describing the distribution characteristics of the hydrocarbon accumulations, a geological model for representing the control of essential petroleum system elements on the occurrence of hydrocarbon accumulations, and a prediction model for integrating available data, relevant information and geoscience constraints to generate possible scenarios of petroleum resource occurrences in a play. This approach has been applied to evaluating play hydrocarbon potential and assessing geological risk in a number of plays, where subsequent drillings had generated data sets that validate the predicted resource potentials and risk predictions. In this paper, application examples from a middle Devonian carbonate play of the Rainbow Sub-basin in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and a Tertiary sandstone play in Nanpu Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, China, are used to illustrate the application of model-based simulation to play evaluation and risk assessment. The comparison of predictions from the model-based simulation and the post-prediction drilling results indicate that the model-based simulation approach captures the essentials of geological controls on spatial distribution of petroleum accumulation and provides valuable information for exploration strategic planning and risk reduction.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas