--> Abstract: Improving Infill Development Decision Making with Interval Estimation, by Marcus Jobe and Hutch Jobe; #90078 (2008)

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Improving Infill Development Decision Making with Interval Estimation

Marcus Jobe1 and Hutch Jobe2
1Decision Science Dept., Miami of Ohio University, Oxford, OH
2St. Mary Land and Exploration, Tulsa, Oklahoma, TX

Following partial completion of both primary and secondary development in a given field, it becomes necessary to determine whether continued drilling should be pursued in the same field. The usual approaches for deciding whether to continue drilling (Swanson’s mean or estimates based on lognormal methods) can fail to account for variation and uncertainty. To better inform this decision, we propose implementing statistical confidence intervals (with an accompanying certainty level) for relevant features of interest. Closed form intervals and maximum likelihood based intervals for the average ultimate recovery for all wells in a field, the percent of wells in a field having ultimate recovery values above a certain benchmark value, and other important features of interest are considered. Confidence intervals appropriate for both the lognormal and Weibull distribution are given. The proposed methods are illustrated with real data from 64 Devonian Richfield wells in the Beaver Creek field, Michigan basin.

 

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90078©2008 AAPG Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas