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Riese, W. C.1, R. R. Charpentier2, T. M. DeCort3, M. Gentle4, M. S. Hupp5, K. Logan6, K. B. Medlock7, A. J. Slaughter8, G. C. Stone9, G. H. Tsang9, L. P. White9
(1) BP America Production Co, Houston, TX
(2) US Geological Survey, Denver, CO 
(3) Minerals Management Service, New Orleans,
(4) Anadarko Petroleum Corp, Houston, TX
(5) Dominion Energy Inc, Richmond, VA
(6) Trans Canada Pipelines Ltd, Calgary, AB 
(7) Rice University, Houston, TX
(8) Shell Exploration and Production Co, Houston, TX
(9) ExxonMobil Development Co, Houston, TX

ABSTRACT: North American Resources: Lessons from The 2003 National Petroleum Council Study of North American Supply And Demand And Market Attributes

The National Petroleum Council (NPC) performed a study which analyzed U.S. natural gas supply and demand and market attributes through the year 2025. The study was performed on behalf of the Department of Energy and used publicly available data for resource endowments and costs, modified by experts from the participating companies. 
The work performed expanded on previous NPC studies in examining the methods employed by the groups which prepare rresource assessments – the USGS, MMS, and CGPC. Each employs its own methods and their resource characterizations are also therefore different. 
This work found that fundamental assumptions about the lognormality of resource endowment curves warrant further study. The largest fields in a play-type may not always define the points from which the endowment should be projected, but may instead represent discrete populations. Similarly, truncation of the upper limits for resource endowments needs to be scrupulously observed. 
This study differed from previous NPC studies by greatly increasing the level of detail it considered and by utilizing a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. A parallel electricity supply and demand model was also used. 
Assumptions regarding resource endowments, discovery sequence, play-by-play costs-of-supply, advances in technology, availability of LNG sources, limitations on fuel switching and environmental considerations all have strong influences on the price projections which result from this type of econometric analysis. It is therefore in the best interests of sound policy decisions that some measure of standardization, uniformity of assumptions, and technical rigor be applied to each of these assessments and assumptions.


AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90026©2004 AAPG Annual Meeting, Dallas, Texas, April 18-21, 2004.