John B. Curtis¹

(1) Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO

ABSTRACT: North American Natural Gas Supply and Demand: Perceptions and Projections

Canada and the United States, and to a lesser extent, Mexico, have become a single market for natural gas. Gas industry research organizations project that United States gas consumption (predominantly supplied by Lower-48 drilling) will increase in the early years of this century by up to 50%, from the current 22 trillion cubic feet to in excess of 33 trillion cubic feet by 2015. These projections typically assume 4 trillion cubic feet of gas/year imported from Canada, and zero net imports/exports from Mexico.

Assessment of a natural resource is a time-dynamic process. Because this process involves estimating the location and magnitude of an inherently unknown quantity, the accuracy of our assessment may be limited by 1) our perception and understanding of the origin and occurrence of the resource, 2) the quality and distribution of available data from which to project our estimates, and 3) the tools that we employ to facilitate the assessment.

This analysis evaluates the methodologies, results and geographic distribution of North American natural gas resource assessments reported by five organizations from 1995 - 2000. Gas demand and price projections are also examined in light of 1) effects of pipeline capacity restraints to market regions, 2) competition between natural gas and coal in the electrical power generation sector, and 3) the summer and fall 2000 price spikes.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90906©2001 AAPG Annual Convention, Denver, Colorado