A New Model for Forecasting Rate and Genetic Algorithm for the Parameters Estimation
WANG, GUANGLAN, Southwest Petroleum Inst.
The main task of development in an oil field is to get the optimal final recovery with
the minimum investment. In the process of enhanced oil recovery, research of development
projects and reservoir behavior assessment is based on accurate forecasting rate. On the
basis of Poisson distribution, this paper describes a model to predict rate variation with
time. In order to use the model, Three unknown parameters must be determined. In the last
several years, much progress has been made in this area. This paper provides a new method
of intelligent genetic algorithm to determine optimal parameters value in model. This
method randomly produces group of initial solutions in the parameters' solution space, it
can search for optimal solution in the large by parallel process, and it use iterative
process to simulate organism evolution process. Species gene produces new generations
group through replication, intersection, variation genetic mode etc. According to
competitive principle of retaining excellent solution, eliminating the others. Genetic
Algorithm guarantees that parameters’ estimation
value convergence to global optimum
principle of retaining excellent solution, eliminating the others. Genetic Algorithm
guarantees that parameters'
estimation
value convergence to global optimum.
AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90911©2000 AAPG Pacific Section and Western Region Society of Petroleum Engineers, Long Beach, California