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Jay E. Hakes1
(1) Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC

Abstract: Long-term oil and gas supply

To help inform the debate on current energy issues, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adopted a philosophy of making projections of approximately 20 years. The oil and gas projections for the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2000 to the year 2020 will be presented. Real uncertainties exist even in the year 2000 forecasts, especially in price and demand. As we extend the forecast period, technology improvements in both energy production and use increase in importance. Advances in technologies can help moderate growth in consumption or supply costs. EIA incorporates ongoing technological improvements in its projections; however, the rate of technology improvement and penetration is uncertain. Consequently, we include sensitivities within each forecast reflecting the impact of faster and slower improvements in costs, efficiency, productivity, and resources.

While EIA does not generally make 100-year forecasts, the U.S. oil and gas industry has more than a century of history and more than a century of future. EIA will present its recent work on ultimate recovery appreciation (reserve growth) for natural gas in known fields. This is a larger volume than U.S. proved reserves or estimates of undiscovered conventional natural gas. Analysts predict a scarcity of global oil supply within the next 30 years—or even next year according to the pessimistic. Such a shift in energy availability worldwide would alter the quality of life economically through deprivation of an essential fuel. EIA’s preliminary analysis of several 100-year conventional oil supply scenarios will be presented.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90914©2000 AAPG Annual Convention, New Orleans, Louisiana