HARPER, FRANCIS (BP Amoco)

Abstract: Deepwater Exploration - BP in a Global Context

Thirty years ago, the oil and gas industry first stepped out into deep water beyond the continental shelf edge. Initially, success came slowly, particularly in the very deep waters but current worldwide success rates have improved to about 1 in 3, significantly better than that for all wells. The main deepwater productive provinces to date are the Gulf of Mexico, the Campos Basin and the Lower Congo Basin, and several other provinces show encouraging signs of having comparable potential. Throughout this period, BP has been in the forefront of deepwater exploration and vies with Shell for having participated in more deepwater exploration wells than any other foreign oil major.

Over the last 15 years, BP has maintained records of its prediction accuracy in prospect assessment. Deepwater exploration drilling during this period totals over 100 wells, over half of which are in water depths of more than 500m. In aggregate BP found 80% of what it predicted during this period, a creditable result but a performance rather worse than that for all of its exploration. Much of this was due to under-performance in the earlier years; since 1993, prediction accuracy in terms of risked reserves is generally very good. As with most exploration companies, BP has tended to underestimate the probability of success and overestimate the potential discovery volumes prior to drilling - this trend is even more pronounced for deepwater prospects.The improved performance since 1993 is primarily due to an increase in the success rate, substantially above that predicted; volume estimation, however, remains significantly poorer than expected.

During the last few years, BP's exploration programme has been dominated by deepwater drilling, to a greater extent than any other foreign oil major. In 1998, more than half of its worldwide exploration acreage was in deepwater and two-thirds of its exploration budget was targeted there.This focus has proved to be very successful and there is every indication that deepwater potential is far from being exhausted.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90923@1999 International Conference and Exhibition, Birmingham, England