Abstract: Consistent Risk Assessment across a Diverse Exploration Portfolio

CONWAY, ANDREW, GREG LEVEILLE

Most exploration portfolios comprise a mix of opportunities - from low risk to high risk. Selecting optimal investment options from this portfolio requires consistent risk assessment. Often this implies using a single risking approach to generate a set of comparative data. However, a single risking approach may not adequately describe the diversity of risk across the portfolio. Unproven plays, when combined with proven prospect trends are characterized by a full range of uncertainty. When the economics of the unproven play are reviewed, new concepts look poor - the technical risks overshadowing the anticipation of large reserves.

Historical success shows that lower risk ventures in the proven prospect trends are more predictable and tend to meet expectations, whereas higher risk ventures in unproven plays often produce disappointing results - falling outside expected reserve ranges. Making better predictions in these higher risk ventures may require a broader assessment of the regional controls.

An approach that helps quantify uncertainty in a regional assessment of the play is differentiated from prospecting in proven trends. Critical elements from each are highlighted to demonstrate how they are incorporated into the exploration portfolio. Early project planning, regional screening and probabilistic mapping are all used as input for play assessment.

Play assessment can be used to help design better exploration programs, improve predictions for frontier exploration areas and facilitate better decisions in selecting the optimum portfolio.

AAPG Search and Discovery Article #90942©1997 AAPG International Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria